TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x056b…303e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
251
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: UFC, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 57 out of 100; worst Lol at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT7647.4%36 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 76 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,050Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+624.4%+$6,556.09
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$1,021.01
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+68.8%+$687.76
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+146.9%+$29.38
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$332.33
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$850Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+192%+$1,631.75
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.54
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$73.58
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$886.79
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$546.9
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$32.59
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$969Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$876.82
Spread: England (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.34
Showing 25 of 76 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT5650%28 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$5,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,700
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winnerbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Mindfreak (BO3) - HyperX & Intel Nationals Group Abacked Abyssal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.12
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Playoffsbacked MIBR Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+1.5)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stagebacked Team Nemesis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+110.6%+$1,105.13
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winnerbacked Inner Circle Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+55.3%+$155.99
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffsbacked Inner Circle Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$16.01
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Playoffsbacked roamsfiest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+137.9%+$137.91
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffsbacked MASQ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$136.8
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffsbacked Inner Circle Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$319.67
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5)backed Inner Circle Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+135.4%+$135.43
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Abacked Inner Circle Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+57.8%+$288.98
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Bbacked Esport Academy Copenhagen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.47
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Abacked AM Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group Abacked Rune Eaters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.07
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Bbacked OG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$394.83
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Abacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group Abacked Sashi Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$409.18
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group Bbacked ECHO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$166.67
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Group Abacked Inner Circle Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$8.25
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5)backed Inner Circle Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+76.5%+$382.72
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$347.46
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT2951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baezbacked Andrey Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$587.3
Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Raphael Collignon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$754.39
Athens Open: Alina Korneeva vs Ann Libacked Ann Li · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,039.99
Iasi Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Petra Marcinkobacked Elina Avanesyan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.53
Set 1 Winner: Zandschulp vs Danielbacked Daniel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$675
Croatia Open: Vit Kopriva vs Dino Prizmicbacked Dino Prizmic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$248.51
Swiss Open: Clement Tabur vs Jurij Rodionovbacked Clement Tabur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$741Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+70.3%+$520.78
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5)backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskovabacked Linda Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$586.96
Sinner vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$541.67
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauffbacked Coco Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverevbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Wimbledon WTA: Linda Noskova vs Elise Mertensbacked Linda Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$639.34
Wimbledon WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchovabacked Naomi Osaka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,010
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Struff (+2.5)backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$302.7
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Ferybacked Grigor Dimitrov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,000
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Krueger (+1.5)backed Krueger · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Pegula vs. Jovic: Match O/U 21.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$974Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$864.13
Wimbledon ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Arthur Ferybacked Zizou Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Wimbledon WTA: Daria Snigur vs Ashlyn Kruegerbacked Ashlyn Krueger · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$776Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+111.6%+$866.08
Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyukbacked Emma Navarro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5)backed Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5)backed Bencic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Wimbledon WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Liudmila Samsonovabacked Diana Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Krejcikova (+1.5)backed Krejcikova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+68.3%+$683.08
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT2544%11 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)backed Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$900
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$972Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$972
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$967Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$929.08
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$646.15
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$690.46
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$884Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$883.86
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$377.19
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$319.67
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royalsbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$221.7
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$235.71
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+100%+$200
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$146.36
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$276.92
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athleticsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$550
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$144.83
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 25 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+56%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+700%+$87.5
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$8,251Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$3,439.36
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$6,052Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+86.7%+$5,250.23
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,053Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$1,872
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$270
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$858Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$1,593.97
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$189
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$102.86
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$408.89
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$244.44
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$451.06
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 17 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map Handicap: NOVA (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)backed JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$173.73
Valorant: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omegabacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$818.18
Valorant: NRG vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Bbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+183.2%+$1,649.17
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked XLG Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$911.11
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+277.9%+$1,389.52
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked FULL SENSE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked XLG Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+69.8%+$348.78
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
All 13 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$915Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$915
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)backed Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$440
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$708Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$292.39
LoL: Conviction vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stagebacked Winthrop University · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$198.4
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$330
LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$112.5
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5)backed Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+65.7%+$197.1
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stagebacked Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffsbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 12 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+87.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5)backed Atlanta Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5)backed Atlanta Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$993Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+82.4%+$818.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Firebacked Supah Hot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$116.67
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menerybacked Manziel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$115.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group Bbacked Nemiga Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$590Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+55.1%+$324.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$351.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+34%+$34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$127.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25%+$125
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mjallby AIF vs. Vasteraas SK: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Qairat FK (-1.5)backed Qairat FK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.