TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof Heroic, TheMongolz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$381,465
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$424,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,465 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Heroic48c39,612$18,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,823.331,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked TheMongolz53c19,178$10,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,005.0241340.2%166 W · 247 L-2.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked TheMongolz44c10,605$4,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,938.64639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked TheMongolz50c9,877$4,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,893.317617.1%13 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed TheMongolz45c9,355$4,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,105.7221548.4%104 W · 111 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Heroic62c9,148$5,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,695.5617861.2%109 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Heroic54c6,659$3,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,606.411,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heroic55c6,079$3,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,350.747,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Heroic56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.991,17854.5%642 W · 536 L-36.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc1…c26bbacked Heroic55c4,727$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.993447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed TheMongolz45c4,414$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.6817240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed TheMongolz60c3,990$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.322,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed TheMongolz46c3,748$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.996572.3%47 W · 18 L+13.8wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+38.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked TheMongolz47c3,687$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.9814645.2%66 W · 80 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed TheMongolz46c3,619$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.0243764.3%281 W · 156 L+51.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+10.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Heroic53c3,418$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.5360540%242 W · 363 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked TheMongolz51c3,217$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5831,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked TheMongolz48c3,145$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.922,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed TheMongolz71c3,056$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87619447.4%92 W · 102 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Heroic47c3,000$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.8592456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Heroic54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62076657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4533…0adcbacked TheMongolz46c3,000$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6304949%24 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked TheMongolz50c2,817$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.511,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Heroic38c2,630$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.782,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed TheMongolz44c2,532$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.7522554.2%122 W · 103 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed TheMongolz47c2,457$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.2916737.7%63 W · 104 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed TheMongolz51c2,243$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.0529443.9%129 W · 165 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed TheMongolz48c2,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05097240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked TheMongolz40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20012744.1%56 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Heroic57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1409650%48 W · 48 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Heroic56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12037845.5%172 W · 206 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3f…6deebacked TheMongolz46c1,971$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed TheMongolz47c1,915$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.641,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed TheMongolz46c1,914$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.666944.9%31 W · 38 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x461d…db9ebacked TheMongolz45c1,871$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.055052%26 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Heroic48c1,842$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.562,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed Heroic55c1,800$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9904839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Heroic54c1,744$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.853759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed TheMongolz43c1,630$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.353360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+42.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed TheMongolz54c1,623$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.5189546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17fe…b0cabacked TheMongolz47c1,542$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.1915838%60 W · 98 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Heroic52c1,516$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.362,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed TheMongolz48c1,503$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.562070%14 W · 6 L+5.6wins+0.28per pick42cpaid+68.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Heroic55c1,453$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79975545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked TheMongolz46c1,376$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.044751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x056b…303ebacked Heroic55c1,372$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505650%28 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f1…e67bbacked TheMongolz71c1,300$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.873948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Heroic47c1,279$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009445.7%43 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked TheMongolz38c1,211$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.153,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heroic46c1,143$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.15,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Heroic51c1,075$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.816842.9%72 W · 96 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked TheMongolz47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.8319857.1%113 W · 85 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed TheMongolz42c1,024$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.716633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked TheMongolz49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4114648.6%71 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Heroic37c1,000$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.42,45644.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L-67.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda03…fa78backed Heroic48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+78.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Heroic26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26022641.2%93 W · 133 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f6…eb09backed Heroic36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3608442.9%36 W · 48 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…cba2backed Heroic46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4602630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked TheMongolz44c999.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.998661.6%53 W · 33 L+13.7wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Heroic56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9918259.9%109 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Heroic26c999.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25532136.8%118 W · 203 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked TheMongolz54c999.98$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.1624447.1%115 W · 129 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed TheMongolz37c933.33$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58861834.6%214 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed Heroic55c915.98$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.7910150.5%51 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f5…5e63backed Heroic10c852.67$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.155125.5%13 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked Heroic64c836.2$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.1736847.6%175 W · 193 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked TheMongolz51c770.17$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.791,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Heroic56c750$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42035643%153 W · 203 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Heroic54c750$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40512351.2%63 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Heroic47c739.71$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.3640853.7%219 W · 189 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Heroic53c700$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3712,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked TheMongolz42c699.98$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.9925855%142 W · 116 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Heroic43c679.42$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.5987847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Heroic55c671.27$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.236749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Heroic50c663.49$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.5819741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed TheMongolz62c649.18$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.185028%14 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Heroic51c638.62$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.8642854.9%235 W · 193 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked TheMongolz45c638.42$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.118657%49 W · 37 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+28.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84df…08b7backed Heroic65c600$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf369…8283backed Heroic55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008446.4%39 W · 45 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked TheMongolz52c530.76$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.981744.7%365 W · 452 L-2.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed TheMongolz40c520$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31210429.8%31 W · 73 L-0.5wins0.00per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Heroic55c519.99$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.599450%47 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf85a…960ebacked Heroic63c516.43$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.314934.7%17 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed TheMongolz42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29019336.3%70 W · 123 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed TheMongolz53c499.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23545439.6%180 W · 274 L+1.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Heroic54c493.22$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.4655232.4%179 W · 373 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd00b…8897backed Heroic64c470.08$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005151%26 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…c848backed Heroic54c469.99$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.811235.7%40 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed TheMongolz47c463.02$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.438546.2%178 W · 207 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a2…c1c2backed Heroic65c461.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005151%26 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked TheMongolz46c439.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.263,26745.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L-85.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86bf…a172backed Heroic45c436.91$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.83836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3885…2cd8backed Heroic47c426.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015950.9%81 W · 78 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed Heroic52c417.69$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.024949%24 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked TheMongolz36c416.67$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked TheMongolz49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1643253%229 W · 203 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed TheMongolz60c368$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.215641%64 W · 92 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb1…9fbbbacked Heroic55c366.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008534.1%29 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.