CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ec02c587fdd8e1baf7234d03c757da29215c9f4791989247c63ec4c9b75638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TheMongolzof Heroic, TheMongolz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked TheMongolz | 66c | 4,848$3,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.2 | 361 | 52.6%190 W · 171 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Heroic | 34c | 2,983$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.05 | 274 | 52.9%145 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…a6d3backed Heroic | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Heroic | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.71 | 557 | 36.3%202 W · 355 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked TheMongolz | 61c | 1,223$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.89 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0724…9091backed Heroic | 32c | 1,110$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked TheMongolz | 68c | 1,037$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.23 | 1,523 | 51.5%785 W · 738 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed TheMongolz | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 502 | 54.2%272 W · 230 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Heroic | 50c | 731$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.09 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Heroic | 37c | 600.22$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed TheMongolz | 56c | 542.41$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Heroic | 33c | 529.97$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 1,325 | 44.1%584 W · 741 L | +44.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed TheMongolz | 67c | 529.97$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.89 | 692 | 53.6%371 W · 321 L | -23.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Heroic | 31c | 474.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed TheMongolz | 67c | 470.54$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.52 | 362 | 39.2%142 W · 220 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed TheMongolz | 73c | 457.56$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed TheMongolz | 61c | 362.6$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.41 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Heroic | 34c | 350$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 492 | 45.9%226 W · 266 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f73…4410backed TheMongolz | 68c | 286$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…6476backed TheMongolz | 67c | 249.36$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked Heroic | 36c | 241.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Heroic | 32c | 237.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 313 | 39.6%124 W · 189 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed Heroic | 56c | 196.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Heroic | 33c | 190.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 2,365 | 45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L | -58.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Heroic | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…f9b2backed Heroic | 43c | 186.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…f316backed TheMongolz | 67c | 183.47$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed TheMongolz | 43c | 156.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Heroic | 32c | 154.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed TheMongolz | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 405 | 58.8%238 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…a44dbacked TheMongolz | 67c | 148.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…3e90backed TheMongolz | 69c | 139.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked TheMongolz | 68c | 138.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Heroic | 27c | 136.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Heroic | 43c | 126.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Heroic | 31c | 126.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 616 | 38.1%235 W · 381 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Heroic | 32c | 113.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed TheMongolz | 48c | 113.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 194 | 53.1%103 W · 91 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Heroic | 31c | 109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…681dbacked Heroic | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed TheMongolz | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 255 | 53.3%136 W · 119 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed TheMongolz | 61c | 78.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe326…f075backed Heroic | 35c | 77.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…416cbacked TheMongolz | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Heroic | 31c | 59.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed TheMongolz | 68c | 58.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…4253backed TheMongolz | 53c | 58.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…05f4backed TheMongolz | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Heroic | 31c | 57.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…7237backed Heroic | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Heroic | 34c | 55.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 618 | 55%340 W · 278 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Heroic | 33c | 55.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe1…d1c2backed TheMongolz | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Heroic | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Heroic | 35c | 41.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed TheMongolz | 56c | 39.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 700 | 60.1%421 W · 279 L | +70.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…2202backed TheMongolz | 68c | 32.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Heroic | 52c | 28.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed TheMongolz | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,377 | 66.4%914 W · 463 L | +77.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…4d31backed TheMongolz | 68c | 24.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked TheMongolz | 67c | 21.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 256 | 50.4%129 W · 127 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed TheMongolz | 67c | 20.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked TheMongolz | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed TheMongolz | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierTheMongolz won
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz - Map 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz - Map 2 WinnerTheMongolz won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)Heroic won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)TheMongolz won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5)TheMongolz won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.