TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof Heroic, TheMongolz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,227,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,514,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,227,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 926 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed Heroic39c110,000$42,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,852.346758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4339…a6b0backed TheMongolz38c72,282$27,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,134.132100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed TheMongolz63c63,130$39,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,358.0326256.1%147 W · 115 L+19.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed TheMongolz43c60,000$25,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,199.8321353.5%114 W · 99 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed TheMongolz42c48,536$20,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,036.2941649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed TheMongolz43c45,061$19,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,557.4414047.9%67 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed TheMongolz42c41,009$17,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,600.612950.4%65 W · 64 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked TheMongolz43c36,362$15,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,862.7314645.2%66 W · 80 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Heroic53c35,981$19,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,070.014639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Heroic44c30,612$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,600.071,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked TheMongolz41c29,966$12,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,579.9677052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Heroic54c29,395$15,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,873.4833343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8f…b9b2backed Heroic2c25,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee6…a1efbacked Heroic2c25,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed TheMongolz42c23,946$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,945.8119554.9%107 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed TheMongolz46c23,471$10,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,595.7725553.3%136 W · 119 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Heroic59c21,141$12,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,442.442341.8%177 W · 246 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed TheMongolz47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,60021548.4%104 W · 111 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbf…0bf0backed Heroic1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ad2…ec06backed Heroic2c20,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed TheMongolz42c19,597$8,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,377.011,64946.9%774 W · 875 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed TheMongolz40c19,099$7,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,432.691,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Heroic62c17,921$11,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,110.7576657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4fe…c916backed Heroic57c16,775$9,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,561.471668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Heroic53c16,628$8,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,766.0632752.3%171 W · 156 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Heroic56c15,531$8,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,697.4913142.7%56 W · 75 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed TheMongolz57c15,361$8,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,679.152,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7528…6539backed Heroic1c15,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8421…4e30backed Heroic1c15,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb831…0295backed Heroic1c15,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e54…b186backed Heroic1c15,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Heroic56c14,521$8,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,164.2360540%242 W · 363 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked TheMongolz46c13,748$6,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,423.9238358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc1…c26bbacked Heroic54c12,963$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0003447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf892…8acbbacked Heroic41c12,855$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3001936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Heroic57c12,749$7,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,234.5511758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Heroic41c12,164$5,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,013.157617.1%13 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Heroic58c12,064$6,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,976.8775550.6%382 W · 373 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Heroic53c12,000$6,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,359.9436152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heroic53c11,111$5,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,888.8382143%353 W · 468 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4848…71b9backed Heroic1c11,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc9…3432backed Heroic1c11,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5d8…a00bbacked Heroic67c10,903$7,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,279.634647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x056b…303ebacked Heroic55c10,452$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7005650%28 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Heroic50c10,408$5,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,182.961,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61d3…fd3bbacked Heroic77c10,059$7,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,745.771020%2 W · 8 L-4.7wins-0.47per pick67cpaid-73.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8a4d…ed6fbacked Heroic1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Heroic57c9,999$5,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.436152.5%32 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ce…100fbacked Heroic62c9,150$5,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,673.069753.6%52 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked Heroic80c8,700$6,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,954.052147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked TheMongolz34c8,386$2,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,565.531,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked Heroic58c8,341$4,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,837.996454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa80c…5a6dbacked Heroic60c8,212$4,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,895.355759.6%34 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Heroic58c7,094$4,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,135.5767951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked Heroic57c7,018$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00019529.2%57 W · 138 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TheMongolz39c6,923$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,193.375,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fac…1feebacked Heroic57c6,371$3,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,631.745850%29 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic48c6,324$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,005.312,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Heroic57c6,281$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,58020947.8%100 W · 109 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Heroic78c6,105$4,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,782.6822554.2%122 W · 103 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Heroic58c6,000$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,48017162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed TheMongolz57c6,000$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5801,17854.5%642 W · 536 L-36.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Heroic58c5,900$3,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4516144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Heroic56c5,830$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2651656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Heroic51c5,827$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,943.322,79837.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L-138.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked TheMongolz47c5,752$2,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,048.795543.6%24 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed TheMongolz68c5,466$3,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.485563.6%35 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc06…8d59backed TheMongolz50c5,405$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,704.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Heroic56c5,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.9837946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic50c4,964$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.041,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x461d…db9ebacked Heroic52c4,934$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,547.75052%26 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked TheMongolz75c4,835$3,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.748964%57 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Heroic50c4,800$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40027452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Heroic51c4,714$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,407.7689546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed TheMongolz59c4,692$2,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.036572.3%47 W · 18 L+13.8wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+38.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x322e…ef2cbacked Heroic58c4,536$2,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,630.881442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Heroic58c4,483$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600.172046.1%332 W · 388 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Heroic56c4,464$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.992944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8b5abacked TheMongolz48c4,196$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,196.141428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-42.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed TheMongolz46c4,055$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.76944.9%31 W · 38 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed TheMongolz61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56020249.5%100 W · 102 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Heroic53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12027353.1%145 W · 128 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Heroic58c4,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.9478939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc790…cbd2backed TheMongolz25c3,880$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,894.331838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Heroic59c3,867$2,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.71,52351.5%785 W · 738 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05df…c930backed Heroic58c3,780$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Heroic45c3,775$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.6919940.7%81 W · 118 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Heroic50c3,574$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.811,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af1…8bd4backed TheMongolz65c3,376$2,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.515143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked TheMongolz43c3,333$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.8122449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked TheMongolz44c3,065$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.3415245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Heroic60c3,053$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.629450%47 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked Heroic78c3,029$2,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,362.84751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Heroic58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.9960248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Heroic57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.9825345.8%116 W · 137 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TheMongolz42c2,997$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.2665351.9%339 W · 314 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Heroic64c2,997$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90941340.2%166 W · 247 L-2.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Heroic62c2,903$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80029948.8%146 W · 153 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d5…2ec4backed TheMongolz46c2,902$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.172142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed TheMongolz49c2,807$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.899335.5%33 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.