TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Athens Open: Alina Korneeva vs Ann Li

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alina Korneevaof Alina Korneeva, Ann Li
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$226,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$233,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,963 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x54ba…04e4backed Ann Li8c24,004$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94071729.8%214 W · 503 L-39.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ann Li8c19,555$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.368,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed Ann Li52c18,816$9,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,833.0334857.2%199 W · 149 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf3…e802backed Ann Li13c10,000$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33047728.1%134 W · 343 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Alina Korneeva49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.9964755.2%357 W · 290 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Alina Korneeva61c7,520$4,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,946.683,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Alina Korneeva48c7,500$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90037450%187 W · 187 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a1…bf4bbacked Ann Li20c7,425$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48511450.9%58 W · 56 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Ann Li52c6,996$3,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,638.021,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x492b…45eebacked Alina Korneeva78c6,816$5,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.2216349.7%81 W · 82 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Alina Korneeva79c6,476$5,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.9593740.6%380 W · 557 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Alina Korneeva75c6,464$4,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.538,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Ann Li51c5,882$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.672650%13 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Alina Korneeva49c5,000$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55532333.7%109 W · 214 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Alina Korneeva47c4,631$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.2756651.8%293 W · 273 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Ann Li38c4,533$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.5753043%228 W · 302 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf916…e770backed Alina Korneeva51c4,127$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.276750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ace…c46ebacked Ann Li2c3,547$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8128221.6%61 W · 221 L+0.6wins0.00per pick21cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Alina Korneeva48c3,416$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.172,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acd…d0b6backed Ann Li43c3,204$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.8214153.2%75 W · 66 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Ann Li51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Alina Korneeva73c2,440$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.833,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Ann Li7c2,402$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.1858021.9%127 W · 453 L+2.5wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Ann Li2c2,221$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.851,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Ann Li51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02070652.7%372 W · 334 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x056b…303ebacked Ann Li52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.992951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Alina Korneeva60c1,916$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.136,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Alina Korneeva55c1,906$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.014,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Alina Korneeva48c1,887$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.0492237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Ann Li35c1,711$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.9154541.7%227 W · 318 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ann Li33c1,701$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.068,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee0…1006backed Ann Li52c1,526$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.517462.2%46 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc847…0a42backed Ann Li26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390280%0 W · 28 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x901b…59efbacked Ann Li4c1,389$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029519.7%58 W · 237 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Ann Li24c1,355$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.8925433.5%85 W · 169 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf764…61e6backed Ann Li11c1,310$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15023723.6%56 W · 181 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2842…e81bbacked Alina Korneeva77c1,299$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.78854.5%48 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5965…935fbacked Ann Li35c1,260$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.9117323.7%41 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Ann Li8c1,260$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8387741.3%362 W · 515 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e6…ad16backed Ann Li51c1,176$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004151.2%21 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Alina Korneeva63c1,077$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.194,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d26…ca0ebacked Alina Korneeva50c1,060$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.1919251%98 W · 94 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Alina Korneeva48c1,041$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.326448.4%31 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Ann Li52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52025446.5%118 W · 136 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked Alina Korneeva50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Ann Li2c969.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1658931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Ann Li51c861$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.112,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Ann Li5c813.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3719410.3%20 W · 174 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Alina Korneeva49c750$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.52,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x26f1…6d2fbacked Ann Li37c716$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.57520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa839…8b66backed Ann Li45c668.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Ann Li51c604$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.041,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ce8…4dd6backed Ann Li55c563.64$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31057950.9%295 W · 284 L+2.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Alina Korneeva49c531.67$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.497,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Ann Li51c512.55$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.465157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2edd…e64abacked Ann Li13c512.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-75%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Ann Li6c488.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.161,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed Alina Korneeva49c475.51$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5145256.2%254 W · 198 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe857…7b3bbacked Ann Li24c458.23$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5583823.2%194 W · 644 L-58.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b50…fd61backed Alina Korneeva71c430$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.75752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6428…8188backed Ann Li51c394$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Alina Korneeva59c334.88$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.865,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Alina Korneeva61c328$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1626546.4%123 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Ann Li15c323.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.34,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Alina Korneeva47c318.98$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.062,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1afd…427ebacked Alina Korneeva71c312$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.483461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Ann Li51c309$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.591,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Ann Li49c305.43$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Alina Korneeva49c305.32$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1577,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b5…2ff8backed Ann Li51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Alina Korneeva78c293.59$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5934748.1%167 W · 180 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Ann Li52c288.43$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.994055%22 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Ann Li10c282.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.42,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3171…b991backed Alina Korneeva54c275.44$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4433551.9%174 W · 161 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba7…dd5abacked Alina Korneeva73c274.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1817554.3%95 W · 80 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Ann Li51c264.71$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Alina Korneeva48c242.45$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1261,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe426…f4ffbacked Ann Li51c232.94$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.88243.9%36 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Alina Korneeva49c222$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2223742.6%101 W · 136 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Ann Li43c216.09$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.922,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bf…6ebbbacked Ann Li50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Ann Li50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006050%30 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Ann Li55c196$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.827753.4%148 W · 129 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alina Korneeva62c195$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.19,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x428d…8cb6backed Alina Korneeva50c193.22$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.614969.4%34 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+35.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4a24…8e9dbacked Ann Li51c184.31$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Alina Korneeva62c184$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.922,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…8784backed Ann Li48c172.92$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Ann Li14c160.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.791,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Alina Korneeva48c150$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6383447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Ann Li21c143.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3899244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Alina Korneeva49c140$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.467848.4%328 W · 350 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3776…e17abacked Alina Korneeva77c136$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.282352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Alina Korneeva47c134$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0272638.8%282 W · 444 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Ann Li27c132$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.041,17552.9%622 W · 553 L+2.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Ann Li26c130$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7273951.7%382 W · 357 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x345c…2636backed Ann Li53c119.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick64cpaid-73%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7079…58e8backed Ann Li41c118.49$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5814148.2%68 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Alina Korneeva76c110.49$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.992,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25e…6deabacked Ann Li51c106.76$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.451546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.