MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x338178971dc013c639d6c5edb659dc0ae4434ae93ca68fe3be8687a00020e8fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 6,537$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,615.68 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 3,598$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.31 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 2,500$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 2,469$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.6 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…303ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 2,250$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 2,085$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 1,747$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.97 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 1,384$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.68 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 1,206$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.34 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 1,094$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.6 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 11c | 951$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 585$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 552.58$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.51 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 527.09$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.29 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 322$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 282.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 256$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…4aa9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 226.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 213.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 204$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 187.84$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 167.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 104$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 98.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 92.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Tampa Bay Rays | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 82.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…f17fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 51.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.