MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8ccd0c8771508db8aeeaae54744399526c6479f7ab4f009a3f4384841849984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 78c | 151,739$117,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,975.11 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 21c | 100,000$21,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,000 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 25c | 42,663$10,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,768.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 6,024$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 1,279$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 48c | 964.35$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.84 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c6…291ebacked Over | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 25c | 705.36$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.86 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…f0a6backed Over | 24c | 400.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 49c | 399.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 58c | 328$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 322.51$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 68c | 314$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 304.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.89 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 32c | 299$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 25c | 216.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 58c | 168.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 21c | 147.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 43c | 102.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…bed8backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 23c | 95.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…6831backed Over | 24c | 89.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 69.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…3333backed Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…c058backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df9…e997backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +7.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 70c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.