MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9deb517342f891dac1f958d0a4c7d5fd52910be4f986032e869c4c97fe0e01ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 79c | 14,742$11,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,074.78 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 21c | 12,416$2,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 50c | 7,624$3,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,811.94 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 4,471$2,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 16c | 1,459$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.04 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 1,346$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…3333backed Over | 21c | 1,241$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 51c | 1,085$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 1,072$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.44 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,021$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.38 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2629…417cbacked Under | 50c | 996.24$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Under | 57c | 895.18$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.68 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 51c | 829.67$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.54 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 674.04$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.76 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 487.63$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 51c | 478$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.78 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 357.36$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 17c | 297.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 49c | 245.07$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 239.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 231.55$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.09 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 52c | 231.33$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 224.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 44c | 207.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 198$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 169.05$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 164.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a7d2backed Under | 52c | 154.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 56c | 151.79$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 48c | 138.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 50c | 102.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 51c | 93.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 45c | 87.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 51c | 51.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 57c | 50.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 50c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Over | 45c | 42.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…82dfbacked Over | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 44c | 32.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 29.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 50c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…a6e3backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 50c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 58c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…ac42backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe602…9446backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 59c | 19.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.