MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02aeb016ee4ac603981a32cf87369a41d7b3f475091d0cb98ff1105818162806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 10,119$6,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,678.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 6,510$5,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.65 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 6,369$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,202.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 4,144$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,015.41 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 1,810$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.14 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 1,339$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.27 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 1,115$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.38 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 1,000$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.7 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 942.78$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.52 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 792.37$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee2…e88fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 675.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.68 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 492.54$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.07 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 283.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.97 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 276.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.29 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 202.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 177.94$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 172.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 151$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 127.61$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 125.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 122.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 108.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 108.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 97.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 96.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 89.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 89.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 85.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 70.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 59.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 544 | 41.2%224 W · 320 L | -22.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 56.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 35.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 34.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 30.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 28.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 27.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 21.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.