TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spainof Spain, Austria
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,072,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,516,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,072,261 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,051 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x640d…9a4cbacked Austria52c1,944,842$1,018,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018,984.931729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Austria48c1,863,807$889,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889,037.2977152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf32…3b90backed Spain52c1,490,191$774,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715,749.31450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61b…8a06backed Spain49c1,330,509$649,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680,532.985959.3%35 W · 24 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Spain51c666,368$337,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328,980.972,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Austria53c592,497$311,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,786.0633538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Austria48c462,411$221,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,957.7151032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Austria51c438,888$223,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223,858.5574752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Austria51c386,725$196,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196,954.4970244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked Austria51c300,000$153,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,999.833151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe221…06f6backed Spain47c277,777$130,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147,332.168246.3%38 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x580d…eb6dbacked Spain52c225,000$117,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,437.558063.8%51 W · 29 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked Spain49c207,750$101,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106,380.6115456.5%87 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed Spain53c200,000$105,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,0009747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Austria51c195,571$98,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,772.827949.4%39 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Austria52c190,522$98,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,686.5548441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Austria50c178,840$89,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,338.514,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Spain48c171,957$83,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,578.732,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…9dcbbacked Spain50c161,064$80,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,064.219045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Austria52c160,843$83,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,324.2250243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Spain46c160,500$74,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,268.7520955.5%116 W · 93 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Austria52c156,500$80,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,974.7647144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f0…5355backed Austria53c150,000$79,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,499.963844.7%17 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed Austria52c147,220$76,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,259.6244144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Spain51c147,109$75,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,010.9542345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Spain49c128,887$62,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,132.311647.4%55 W · 61 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Austria52c125,976$65,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,259.7247442.8%203 W · 271 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Austria52c122,084$63,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,306.0747643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Spain47c110,000$51,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,57522139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Spain47c101,328$47,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,703.916546.1%76 W · 89 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…4244backed Austria39c100,182$39,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,365.3317550.3%88 W · 87 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Austria48c100,000$48,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,249.96520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Spain47c96,048$45,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,905.4311642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x381b…4d74backed Spain47c94,000$43,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,2908440.5%34 W · 50 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Austria51c90,162$45,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,683.591957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Austria49c89,773$44,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,106.2214349.7%71 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed Spain50c87,500$43,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,187.59846.9%46 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Spain62c86,960$53,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,285.3821343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Spain52c85,000$43,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,062.485263.5%33 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd86e…45cebacked Spain48c84,720$40,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,054.48856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Spain48c78,084$37,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,675.379345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c8…d2d0backed Austria51c64,775$33,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,264.511030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Spain47c64,370$30,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,115.9818740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Spain52c63,350$32,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,468.191,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02af…aaa9backed Spain47c60,567$28,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,998.9613448.5%65 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Spain47c58,666$27,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,092.9817447.1%82 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Austria51c56,400$28,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,764.0136250%181 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Austria50c55,074$27,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,611.733,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Austria51c53,000$26,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,832.378932.6%29 W · 60 L-10.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Austria51c50,000$25,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,62553448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c78…77f1backed Austria38c47,822$18,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,172.536048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b4…23febacked Spain51c44,760$22,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,948.245745.6%26 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x457f…2a64backed Austria52c42,888$22,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,1592755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088b…21ccbacked Spain57c40,952$23,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,602.375040%20 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Austria39c38,846$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00017840.4%72 W · 106 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spain57c36,761$20,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,875.851,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ac…f764backed Spain50c34,118$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,117.726543.1%28 W · 37 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Austria53c31,837$16,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,873.695334%18 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d06…f79dbacked Spain49c30,637$14,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,778.312536.8%46 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Spain48c30,000$14,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,524.989451.1%48 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b6…ca29backed Spain52c28,235$14,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,623.582157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Spain48c28,183$13,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,584.5512536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Austria53c27,722$14,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,691.213,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471d…2fa7backed Austria48c27,717$13,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,301.923154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdac7…6d53backed Spain47c25,000$11,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,250.219131.9%29 W · 62 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Spain48c25,000$11,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,12527039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf072…467abacked Spain50c24,242$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,242.429446.8%44 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…04a9backed Austria53c23,685$12,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5552050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4582…619ebacked Austria48c22,554$10,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,775.258735.6%31 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked Spain47c22,500$10,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,037.510840.7%44 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Spain47c22,000$10,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,7705653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Austria51c21,316$10,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,871.1624950.2%125 W · 124 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb7…3cd4backed Spain47c21,277$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,276.67035.7%25 W · 45 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked Austria48c20,709$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0006842.6%29 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Spain48c20,700$9,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,712.2514045.7%64 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Spain47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,60013331.6%42 W · 91 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Spain50c20,000$9,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,049.9910555.2%58 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Austria51c20,000$10,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,149.9517852.2%93 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Spain51c19,918$10,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,854.598,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x639c…31e2backed Austria50c19,493$9,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,697.595054%27 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Spain52c19,293$9,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,337.7112248.4%59 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda4a…1c05backed Spain48c19,000$9,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9206662.1%41 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+28.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba22…0c14backed Spain52c18,840$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,090.191968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+91.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Spain50c18,500$9,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,205.7422752.4%119 W · 108 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Austria52c17,152$8,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,919.0722348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf421…cff4backed Spain48c16,462$7,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,560.3410849.1%53 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Austria51c16,326$8,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,326.2940655.7%226 W · 180 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7973…34d4backed Austria51c16,211$8,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,267.77250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Spain51c15,717$7,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,717.5921849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b43…c5cbbacked Spain52c15,245$7,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,317.64348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Austria49c15,178$7,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,505.071,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Spain47c15,121$7,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,976.697653.9%41 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Spain53c15,000$7,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,07515150.3%76 W · 75 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Spain60c13,666$8,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,533.541,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Spain52c13,519$7,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,518.257452.7%39 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa698…db5ebacked Spain52c13,481$7,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,437.187962%49 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Spain47c13,475$6,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,134.1236031.7%114 W · 246 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1fa…9c2cbacked Spain53c13,332$6,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,332.875554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a90…7e68backed Austria50c13,065$6,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,538.68785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+39.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb715…c3bbbacked Austria39c12,823$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004425%11 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.