Spain vs. Austria: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e16ab716111eff744364bb19d4af6eac29394a97980c83fdad19c018b8eaff

Rebuilt 27 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $315,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $336,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,689 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over	3c	54,949$1,419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,419.14	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	8c	53,134$4,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,218.75	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	6c	22,296$1,434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,433.85	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	9c	10,590$937 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$937.15	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4582…619ebacked Over	17c	10,000$1,675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,674.99	87	35.6%31 W · 56 L	-6.1wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Over	13c	5,000$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over	16c	3,682$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.98	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	16c	3,469$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.17	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	10c	3,445$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.03	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e63…0857backed Over	2c	3,033$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.27	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Over	17c	2,786$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.64	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Over	16c	2,540$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.35	674	47.6%321 W · 353 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0886…b3a6backed Over	16c	2,437$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	329	22.5%74 W · 255 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07ea…a6babacked Over	10c	2,381$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	352	44%155 W · 197 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	5c	2,268$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.38	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	11c	2,005$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.59	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Over	13c	2,000$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	98	21.4%21 W · 77 L	-8.6wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-26%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Over	8c	1,892$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.1	668	46.7%312 W · 356 L	+45.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x06f2…1269backed Over	3c	1,571$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.94	383	33.9%130 W · 253 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Over	15c	1,294$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.05	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b79…b1bebacked Over	2c	1,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	202	45.5%92 W · 110 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	15c	1,222$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.3	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2053…1eedbacked Over	16c	1,212$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd016…6114backed Over	12c	1,200$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	10c	1,123$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.85	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	6c	1,042$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.2	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d9…5442backed Over	11c	940.36$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	314	35.7%112 W · 202 L	-11.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ff…5102backed Over	17c	669.44$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.4	143	17.5%25 W · 118 L	-7.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4a8…5604backed Over	15c	516.13$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	46	37%17 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed Over	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	136	41.9%57 W · 79 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9287…0098backed Over	17c	454.78$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.04	235	40.9%96 W · 139 L	+13.9wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa80e…6aa1backed Over	10c	426.63$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.73	273	45.8%125 W · 148 L	+14.2wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Over	16c	403.13$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.5	108	32.4%35 W · 73 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c5…46c3backed Over	16c	369.23$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	193	29%56 W · 137 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed Over	16c	363.64$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8781…0d7abacked Over	16c	308.81$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.41	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06be…8a46backed Over	17c	300$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.25	99	19.2%19 W · 80 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Over	17c	299.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.25	194	42.3%82 W · 112 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x903d…84a1backed Over	17c	298.51$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Over	11c	288.68$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.52	312	32.4%101 W · 211 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4929…f37abacked Over	16c	272.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3270…e011backed Over	5c	267.96$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72e0…08eebacked Over	17c	259.88$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.18	262	43.1%113 W · 149 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Over	15c	239.48$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.18	1,045	29.3%306 W · 739 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	6c	239$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over	13c	225.05$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.45	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over	16c	215.38$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	438	19.2%84 W · 354 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	13c	204.13$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.54	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7921…bbc3backed Over	15c	203$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	241	40.2%97 W · 144 L	-12.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Over	15c	193.68$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.54	727	22.7%165 W · 562 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over	8c	188$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	373	48.3%180 W · 193 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0823…ec6abacked Over	15c	186.9$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.04	431	39%168 W · 263 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	10c	183.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.83	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187c…8708backed Over	17c	176.62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Over	17c	176.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dfb…f1b7backed Over	7c	160.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	782	34.3%268 W · 514 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	14c	159.66$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.58	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Over	9c	150$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	872	37.8%330 W · 542 L	-39.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x074a…f8a3backed Over	14c	145.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	130	19.2%25 W · 105 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Over	11c	130$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	847	38.8%329 W · 518 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x940b…1f57backed Over	17c	119.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bb1…daf7backed Over	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	188	21.8%41 W · 147 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d91…f6dabacked Over	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	136	33.1%45 W · 91 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Over	16c	115$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	1,313	48.9%642 W · 671 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Over	16c	115$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	1,390	46.3%644 W · 746 L	+20.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7102…28b4backed Over	17c	107.76$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad1…de9bbacked Over	17c	104.48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	52	69.2%36 W · 16 L	+7.0wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Over	16c	99.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	238	45.4%108 W · 130 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	11c	91.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce04…e871backed Over	16c	90.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1617…d790backed Over	15c	77.07$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	248	43.1%107 W · 141 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Over	16c	75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	414	44.9%186 W · 228 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Over	16c	73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80fc…d9ecbacked Over	16c	69.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Over	15c	68$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	328	37.2%122 W · 206 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb9…901bbacked Over	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	36cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccb2…bcdcbacked Over	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spain vs. Austria: O/U 4.5this page
Spain vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: Austria 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: Austria 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 3.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 5.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 6.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 7.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 8.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Spain vs. Austria: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: Spain O/U 0.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: Spain O/U 1.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: Spain O/U 2.5Over won
Spain vs. Austria: Team to AdvanceSpain won
Spain vs. Austria: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
Spain vs. Austria: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Austria (-1.5)Spain won
Spread: Austria (-2.5)Spain won
Spread: Austria (-3.5)Spain won
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Spain won
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Spain won
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Austria won
Spread: Spain (-4.5)Austria won
Spread: Spain (-5.5)Austria won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spain vs. Austria: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event