TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Spain (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Austriaof Spain, Austria
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$142,470
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$194,574

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,470 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Spain3c24,131$768 inLost-$768.224,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Spain4c9,998$408 inLost-$408.2536123.5%85 W · 276 L-1.7wins0.00per pick24cpaid-21.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Spain3c9,065$273 inLost-$272.5968141.1%280 W · 401 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Spain4c7,830$279 inLost-$279.4742710.3%44 W · 383 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Spain2c7,506$149 inLost-$148.641,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Spain4c4,785$179 inLost-$178.893,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f0…42debacked Spain4c2,887$123 inLost-$123.4380%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a06…3800backed Spain5c2,121$100 inLost-$1004528.9%13 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Spain3c2,038$70 inLost-$70.192,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked Spain4c888.89$40 inLost-$4015418.8%29 W · 125 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Spain2c806.26$20 inLost-$19.9917919%34 W · 145 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Spain5c476.19$25 inLost-$2560821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ec…c561backed Spain4c249.88$11 inLost-$10.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.