TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spain vs. Austria: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,383

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,623 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbf4…2365backed Yes12c1,349$162 inLost-$161.881926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+58.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Yes7c1,047$73 inLost-$72.856541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e9…939ebacked Yes12c833.33$100 inLost-$1002924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+69.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes10c752$77 inLost-$77.071,11124.3%270 W · 841 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked Yes12c688.91$82 inLost-$824238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2735…8bcbbacked Yes7c409.22$29 inLost-$28.832015%3 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c49…793bbacked Yes7c366.66$25 inLost-$252240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+71.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe208…4e40backed Yes4c350.48$13 inLost-$13922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-58.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Yes10c299.98$30 inLost-$3010933%36 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4d…ae55backed Yes9c277.78$25 inLost-$25650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc73…51edbacked Yes10c205.63$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…2858backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$2015449.4%76 W · 78 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeec…99c8backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$2011619%22 W · 94 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6846…a82fbacked Yes11c176.18$19 inLost-$19.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes10c157.71$16 inLost-$15.582,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes13c153.85$20 inLost-$2015046.7%70 W · 80 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8227…2432backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost-$2017145.6%78 W · 93 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf011…dc57backed Yes10c150$15 inLost-$154117.1%7 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4d1…3d4cbacked Yes13c134.62$17 inLost-$17205%1 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x11c1…83afbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost-$102020%4 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31fb…6122backed Yes9c107.43$10 inLost-$102642.3%11 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e62…b621backed Yes10c104.39$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8323…1ac0backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$102114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.