TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Paper Rexof Paper Rex, Leviatán Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$397,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$502,851

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,416 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 288 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Paper Rex67c100,000$66,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,089.1752155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Leviatán Esports33c65,690$21,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,677.646643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Leviatán Esports30c29,620$8,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,832.0817948.6%87 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Leviatán Esports33c20,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.958951.7%46 W · 43 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ed…49aebacked Leviatán Esports0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed Leviatán Esports32c15,530$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Paper Rex65c6,473$4,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275.5211442.1%48 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed Paper Rex66c6,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0403966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Paper Rex66c5,968$3,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.0933153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Leviatán Esports18c5,363$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98014534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Leviatán Esports16c4,914$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.346326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Leviatán Esports12c4,590$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.942245.5%10 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+241.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Paper Rex78c4,071$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.1353355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Leviatán Esports28c4,001$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.3639042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Leviatán Esports35c4,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9926738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Paper Rex69c3,641$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.2193049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Leviatán Esports16c3,265$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.1410238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Leviatán Esports29c3,118$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.5342540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Paper Rex60c3,011$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.7226634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked Leviatán Esports8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Paper Rex66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6e…5cfdbacked Leviatán Esports32c2,983$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.631540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Paper Rex68c2,942$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.7434857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Paper Rex78c2,662$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.1968458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Leviatán Esports18c2,339$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.677744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Leviatán Esports33c2,052$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.332142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed Paper Rex74c2,043$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.063756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Leviatán Esports33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6606445.3%29 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Leviatán Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20701.4%1 W · 69 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Paper Rex66c1,903$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.1612138.8%47 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed Leviatán Esports1c1,800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick2cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Leviatán Esports32c1,750$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9941734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e8…0105backed Paper Rex66c1,625$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.482835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Paper Rex60c1,518$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.2888844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Leviatán Esports15c1,502$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.930835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Leviatán Esports18c1,445$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.1560154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed Paper Rex68c1,441$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.566848.5%33 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Paper Rex79c1,428$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.066373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Leviatán Esports34c1,393$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.985147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4b…553bbacked Leviatán Esports18c1,382$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Leviatán Esports17c1,247$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.1427947.7%133 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked Paper Rex67c1,160$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.7850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Paper Rex72c1,092$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.7342140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Paper Rex78c1,071$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.211,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked Leviatán Esports34c1,055$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.5415431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Paper Rex55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45016950.9%86 W · 83 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Leviatán Esports33c999.96$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9914032.9%46 W · 94 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e81…9e26backed Paper Rex67c948.34$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.951560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Leviatán Esports32c945.69$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.6254751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Leviatán Esports17c935.41$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.4326932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked Leviatán Esports33c912.12$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.16137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Leviatán Esports18c905.63$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.271,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Leviatán Esports33c883.2$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.461942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Leviatán Esports34c882.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30029733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16a…735dbacked Paper Rex66c850.09$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Leviatán Esports18c814.55$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1418444.6%82 W · 102 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab65…1f0dbacked Leviatán Esports25c760.21$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.13850%19 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Paper Rex66c760$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.430652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Leviatán Esports24c749.99$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.532245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xef00…de7fbacked Leviatán Esports20c717$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc96…d916backed Leviatán Esports14c671.93$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.591926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Leviatán Esports32c655.61$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.826450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Leviatán Esports16c601.72$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2832152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Leviatán Esports34c599.96$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9986747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8cc…661ebacked Paper Rex66c597.35$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.15660.7%34 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c90…2f6bbacked Leviatán Esports36c561.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Paper Rex67c522.39$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3913455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa573…3987backed Paper Rex65c500.49$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.172339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Paper Rex66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17016639.2%65 W · 101 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Leviatán Esports35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17528541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Paper Rex68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16024457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb17f…fe84backed Leviatán Esports33c499.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Paper Rex65c499.98$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.9919656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcda…5e95backed Leviatán Esports25c496.23$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7611457%65 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Leviatán Esports21c493.75$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.891,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Paper Rex67c472.45$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.913860.5%23 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2363…a20dbacked Leviatán Esports34c455.88$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1552755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Paper Rex66c453.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2314452.1%75 W · 69 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Paper Rex72c443.08$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.082268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Paper Rex73c441$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2313759.9%82 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Leviatán Esports17c437.43$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2554342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd20…24dabacked Leviatán Esports14c437.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605523.6%13 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3bb…e26bbacked Leviatán Esports34c430$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.23652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Leviatán Esports11c421$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0777929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x056b…303ebacked Leviatán Esports24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbb…5e47backed Leviatán Esports12c416.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae5…5d19backed Leviatán Esports34c414$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.763647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddfb…d9bfbacked Leviatán Esports16c413$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf651…c57fbacked Paper Rex67c380.36$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.521741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce60…f989backed Leviatán Esports17c366.11$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.241127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Paper Rex64c346.53$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7522047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71a1…0e0abacked Leviatán Esports15c333.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…bf69backed Leviatán Esports12c328.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Paper Rex66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0319847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2b…0176backed Leviatán Esports12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked Leviatán Esports36c299.95$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9810951.4%56 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Leviatán Esports34c293.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9619655.6%109 W · 87 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb37b…3345backed Leviatán Esports35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d30…fad8backed Leviatán Esports13c269.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb603…c701backed Leviatán Esports33c267.9$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.641241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.