TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xce60…f989

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst MLB at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+57.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$293.33
Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$1,747.06
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$1,275
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.4
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$1,018.18
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$450
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$728.18
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.85
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$163.16
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT1816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbertbacked Ugo Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinnbacked Ethan Quinn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmannbacked Jil Teichmann · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$239.74
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggermanbacked Ryan Seggerman · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneaubacked Oliver Crawford · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritzbacked Zizou Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovicbacked Arthur Rinderknech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardtbacked Bruno Fernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.37
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfibacked Dalma Galfi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevezbacked Thiago Cigarran · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$265.71
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarinibacked Federico Coria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+130.9%+$41.68
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshawbacked Pedro Martinez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.84
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknechbacked Arthur Rinderknech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tsengbacked Chun-Hsin Tseng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galanbacked Marco Trungelliti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworthbacked James Duckworth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoebacked Rinky Hijikata · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Ekaterina Maklakovabacked Ekaterina Maklakova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 18 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-82.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
MLB — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)backed Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.22
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)backed New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$440
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)backed Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+25%+$125
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)backed San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$292
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)backed New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+96.8%+$142.2
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Metsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padresbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.3
All 18 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+196.8%+$196.77
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$119.3
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+136.5%+$476.47
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.48
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+62.4%+$146.07
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+219.8%+$637.47
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+113.6%+$227.21
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.61
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+68%+$204.12
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked XLG Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.62
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.76
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$186
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.24
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked Global Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.44
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$66.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Stormbacked Seattle Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.