MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5266db3f45c5e1a54fd208d2e5a8807fb19b802724f3222728f4cbb20d493078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros | 69c | 30,393$21,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,295.72 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 16,475$4,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,684.7 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 6,168$1,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,933.82 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 2,528$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.36 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 2,293$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.16 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 2,158$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.8 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 2,050$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.5 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Houston Astros | 60c | 2,008$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.22 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 1,585$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.31 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 1,198$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.2 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Houston Astros | 60c | 1,040$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.06 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 873$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.66 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 826.55$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.62 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 61c | 724.14$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 720.72$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.5 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…f989backed Toronto Blue Jays | 14c | 719.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 59c | 584$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.35 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 537.32$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.06 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Houston Astros | 60c | 288.3$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 244$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 157.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 129.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 115.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 72c | 101.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e81…e973backed Houston Astros | 71c | 99.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 98.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 98.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 91.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 81.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 61c | 76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Houston Astros | 70c | 72.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 58.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 54.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 48.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 46.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 36.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Houston Astros | 74c | 31.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Houston Astros | 60c | 26.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Houston Astros | 73c | 21.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Houston Astros | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Houston Astros | 67c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros | 64c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.