MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06090fb772acb3d17f8e35aee927f9e42ee46955c3283d1e4c3f45b09ce287a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 50c | 81,175$40,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,700.42 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 51c | 12,634$6,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,422 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 9,342$4,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,835.94 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 50c | 7,777$3,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,888.5 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 6,666$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 5,446$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 4,610$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,296.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 4,175$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 3,978$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 3,653$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.25 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 50c | 3,600$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 3,047$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.91 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 50c | 1,402$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.05 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 58c | 933.41$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 50c | 750$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 709.87$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.94 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 58c | 671.09$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.7 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 481.38$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 52c | 469$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.88 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 52c | 462.23$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.36 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 425$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 415.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.4 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 356.4$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…dd17backed Under | 51c | 318.35$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 285.52$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.45 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 58c | 283.64$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.11 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 51c | 240$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 57c | 211.71$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 53c | 204.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…416cbacked Under | 51c | 170.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 41c | 168.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Under | 48c | 167.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 54c | 164.15$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 156.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 39c | 149.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 132.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 54c | 128.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 51c | 125.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 118.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 50c | 102.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 52c | 91.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 53c | 91.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 44c | 71.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 49c | 70.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 45c | 66.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 51c | 50.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 38c | 49.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 44.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 64c | 44.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 49c | 42.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 57c | 41.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…f0e0backed Under | 55c | 35.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Over | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 49c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Under | 50c | 27.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Over | 49c | 25.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 54c | 25.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…622fbacked Over | 51c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 48c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.