MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf5f96fe705ac42e732e3846efaca515263a6b4f31acb8967715da6087470e6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 19,999$12,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,492.97 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 11,826$3,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,854.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 8,797$3,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,272.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 60c | 2,100$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.68 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 2,017$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 1,932$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…f989backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 1,195$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 627.33$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.93 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 612$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.47 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 501.59$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.51 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 427$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 399$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 387.42$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 343$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.19 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 135.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 108.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 103.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Atlanta Braves | 72c | 99.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 94.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 68.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 67.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 64.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 59.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 60c | 58.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Atlanta Braves | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 47.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked San Diego Padres | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5b69backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 37.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Atlanta Braves | 72c | 34.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…df3ebacked Atlanta Braves | 71c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…9062backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.