MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f34dc2a9b3df12f72ac39a6ab4c836803e6bd7fcbfad128c88014c02767b1ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Atlanta Braves | 30c | 20,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.99 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 14,696$10,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,361.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 7,995$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.76 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 6,054$3,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.57 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 2,474$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 1,763$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 1,760$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 1,689$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 1,412$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.47 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 1,020$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.1 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 782.44$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.08 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 767$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 706.24$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.87 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 705.77$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.73 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 657.89$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.91 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 423.56$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.07 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 420$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 11c | 404.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 399$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 284.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 267.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 258.24$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 17c | 224.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 219.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Atlanta Braves | 31c | 200.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 195$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Atlanta Braves | 26c | 165.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Atlanta Braves | 15c | 160.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x52de…8f92backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 144 | 69.4%100 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e60…536bbacked Atlanta Braves | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 100.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 99.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 90.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 90.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…0350backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 65.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 55.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 55.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 52.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 47.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 35.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…adc3backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 33.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440b…7551backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 29.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…f13abacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 28.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked San Diego Padres | 69c | 26.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 24.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…594cbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 24.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…4a58backed San Diego Padres | 79c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.