MLB · resolved market

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x348635bb8e564da45acb5cfe43269287fad9005979770a07a5b6654464e0fe74

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $194,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $191,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,110 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under	53c	52,213$27,666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,547.14	1,385	49.5%685 W · 700 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56e2…4b88backed Under	52c	40,124$20,864 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,259.47	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Under	51c	32,016$16,310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,706.45	118	49.2%58 W · 60 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Over	48c	29,000$13,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,920	77	55.8%43 W · 34 L	+5.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+15%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	48c	25,907$12,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,433.39	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over	48c	20,153$9,745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,744.59	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a4…e371backed Over	48c	17,000$8,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,160	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Under	52c	13,763$7,157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,606.28	322	51.6%166 W · 156 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Over	48c	12,500$6,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,000	448	51.6%231 W · 217 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over	49c	10,204$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	349	42.7%149 W · 200 L	-19.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Over	54c	9,208$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	613	51.5%316 W · 297 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	48c	7,585$3,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,655.88	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	50c	6,123$3,036 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,036.28	1,063	48.2%512 W · 551 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	48c	4,280$2,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,071.28	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	52c	4,258$2,214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,043.77	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	50c	3,123$1,547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,575.9	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over	47c	3,000$1,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,409.98	203	50.7%103 W · 100 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	39c	2,489$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980.11	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed Over	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over	51c	1,530$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.3	680	53.2%362 W · 318 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over	47c	1,300$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611	752	48.8%367 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under	50c	1,111$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$555.5	866	53%459 W · 407 L	+16.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98f3…bf14backed Over	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	+3.9wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	49c	935.2$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.25	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under	52c	605.69$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.73	614	50.8%312 W · 302 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Under	53c	600$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282	660	50.2%331 W · 329 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under	49c	501.19$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.61	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Over	49c	453.4$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.17	281	54.4%153 W · 128 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3a5…cd84backed Over	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	100	46%46 W · 54 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	50c	349.99$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	2,290	51%1,167 W · 1,123 L	+23.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd217…b3f3backed Over	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.34per pick	51cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over	50c	256.51$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.26	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over	42c	234.1$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.64	1,147	31.6%362 W · 785 L	-97.5wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Over	48c	220$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.6	449	49.2%221 W · 228 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	27c	215.99$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.53	1,927	17.2%331 W · 1,596 L	-320.3wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under	62c	200$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.5	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	33c	200$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.9	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Under	54c	196.04$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.12	1,607	53.2%855 W · 752 L	+74.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Over	41c	195.07$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.98	209	44%92 W · 117 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Over	49c	194.82$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.46	473	50.7%240 W · 233 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeacb…4a8ebacked Over	49c	163.27$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over	48c	153.76$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.07	1,062	49.2%523 W · 539 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	48c	151.25$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.6	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under	50c	132.44$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.22	920	46%423 W · 497 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under	53c	120$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.91	1,753	50.8%890 W · 863 L	+29.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under	53c	102.55$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.2	577	47.7%275 W · 302 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,197	53.9%645 W · 552 L	+42.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	410	51.7%212 W · 198 L	+14.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Over	48c	96.46$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.58	536	44.6%239 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2208…53eebacked Over	48c	93.75$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	55	54.5%30 W · 25 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a7e…363cbacked Under	53c	92.64$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.54	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d92…9748backed Over	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd10f…bef4backed Over	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	48c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	619	48.6%301 W · 318 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d6…1f24backed Over	51c	76.49$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.01	312	58%181 W · 131 L	+15.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	55c	74.51$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.29	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under	50c	74.31$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.16	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd47a…67fabacked Over	48c	62.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	123	50.4%62 W · 61 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Over	49c	61.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	420	47.9%201 W · 219 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Under	53c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bda…8254backed Under	78c	59$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.73	89	66.3%59 W · 30 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Under	52c	55$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	392	50.3%197 W · 195 L	+18.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc93d…23d5backed Over	43c	52.25$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.47	197	56.9%112 W · 85 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab46…0ee6backed Over	48c	52.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked Over	49c	52.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	145	44.8%65 W · 80 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	62c	50.81$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.07	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	2,376	49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc38…bb0ebacked Over	42c	48.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.25	93	41.9%39 W · 54 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over	49c	48.13$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	738	49.3%364 W · 374 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	49c	43.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2815…7f0cbacked Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	61%36 W · 23 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7de2…cd3fbacked Under	54c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	51	64.7%33 W · 18 L	+7.1wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Over	49c	34.72$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	254	48.4%123 W · 131 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe840…733cbacked Under	52c	34.67$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.64	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-13.5wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over	48c	32.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	162	50.6%82 W · 80 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Under	53c	30.55$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.3	358	49.4%177 W · 181 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Over	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	1,804	53.8%970 W · 834 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over	40c	29.52$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	705	46.8%330 W · 375 L	-13.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Over	49c	29.05$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	528	52.1%275 W · 253 L	+13.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under	61c	28.35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.08	746	57.8%431 W · 315 L	-9.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5b…3b06backed Over	38c	28.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	85	56.5%48 W · 37 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Over	48c	26.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	509	54%275 W · 234 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x381c…c62dbacked Over	48c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.9wins	+0.26per pick	46cpaid	+60.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Over	48c	21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	507	48.7%247 W · 260 L	-17.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d2…4268backed Under	50c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	147	53.1%78 W · 69 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2c…be40backed Under	49c	20.41$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.41	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	192	48.4%93 W · 99 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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