MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd7dcea331746fa21643f0d983b7c125ee48b7467a7ab767426195777d184456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 3,940$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…d284backed Houston Astros | 68c | 3,235$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 2,837$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.44 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 64c | 2,220$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.91 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 1,976$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 1,662$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.8 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 1,527$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.54 | 801 | 47.7%382 W · 419 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 55c | 1,468$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.16 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Houston Astros | 65c | 1,334$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.9 | 1,889 | 52.9%1,000 W · 889 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…f989backed Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 922.87$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.22 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Houston Astros | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 788.65$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.8 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 661.67$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.27 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros | 28c | 652$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.07 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 538.98$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.44 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 520.84$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.76 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 57c | 417$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.31 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 229.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…6bb6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 213.96$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 4,197 | 50.2%2,106 W · 2,091 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…8c2ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 204.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…e1b9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 189.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 132.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Houston Astros | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Houston Astros | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 522 | 46.7%244 W · 278 L | -22.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 118.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Houston Astros | 43c | 113.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 1,822 | 49.2%897 W · 925 L | -25.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Houston Astros | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 107.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f1…5729backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 94.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 91.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 90.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 1,960 | 41.4%812 W · 1,148 L | -25.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…baecbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 85.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 84.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 82.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 54c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Houston Astros | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 53.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Houston Astros | 73c | 53.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 469 | 59.5%279 W · 190 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Houston Astros | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 45.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 248 | 44.8%111 W · 137 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 42.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 40.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 40.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Houston Astros | 40c | 40.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 37.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 459 | 58.4%268 W · 191 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Houston Astros | 57c | 34.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,039 | 58.3%606 W · 433 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…8a97backed Houston Astros | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 51c | 26.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 929 | 46.1%428 W · 501 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,255 | 58.3%732 W · 523 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Houston Astros | 63c | 16.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf036…59c1backed Houston Astros | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…f3fabacked Houston Astros | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 15.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 17.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 18.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.