MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 17.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd9588d4f72c4b9c1bcaf73c552f59461a7e14af99c52eda44574dfe74bd4439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 7,632$4,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,537.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 40c | 4,722$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,844.83 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854b…8f97backed Over | 3c | 3,997$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,877.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 3,427$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 39c | 1,642$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.55 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 54c | 1,356$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.71 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 41c | 1,151$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.24 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe28c…ffb3backed Over | 55c | 1,127$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 38c | 1,094$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 11c | 856.58$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.1 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 41c | 843.68$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.11 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 41c | 679$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.96 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 43c | 650.53$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.8 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Over | 41c | 317$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.2 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 303.19$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 65c | 286.31$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 41c | 238$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.59 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over | 40c | 236.07$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.23 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…6bb6backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 40c | 178$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 41c | 153.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 39c | 133.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 23c | 128.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 33c | 112.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Over | 42c | 105.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…0974backed Under | 51c | 96.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Under | 51c | 96.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Under | 51c | 96.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 41c | 78.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 39c | 76.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 41c | 76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 41c | 73.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 73c | 62.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 36c | 61.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 41c | 47.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 40c | 35.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…8417backed Over | 43c | 28.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 61c | 27.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…cfbfbacked Under | 79c | 18.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 17.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 15.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 18.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.