TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof MOUZ, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,098,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,167,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,098,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 859 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1136…0c2ebacked Legacy45c250,000$112,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,499.914050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed MOUZ55c100,000$55,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,00023355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Legacy44c99,999$44,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,999.5320354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked MOUZ56c80,653$44,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,693.647040%28 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked MOUZ55c65,000$35,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,249.9915245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed MOUZ55c52,269$28,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,643.7641649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed MOUZ56c52,003$29,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,881.2410359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed Legacy44c40,000$17,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,599.8617951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Legacy18c37,428$6,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,904.741,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Legacy45c31,508$14,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,163.5876058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked MOUZ55c30,743$17,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,730.2664852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed MOUZ55c29,786$16,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,407.4513244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Legacy45c25,000$11,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,25050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Legacy45c25,000$11,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,25023839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56a9…0350backed Legacy0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f8…4de0backed MOUZ55c22,202$12,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,990.811650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked MOUZ55c21,179$11,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,530.521655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d1…2c48backed MOUZ56c17,831$9,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,897.151136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89dd…f662backed Legacy44c17,531$7,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,713.846940.6%28 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Legacy45c17,500$7,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,87522849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed MOUZ55c15,577$8,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,995.432,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Legacy44c15,000$6,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,65075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ56c13,788$7,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,066.525,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Legacy44c13,531$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00019055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc56b…8012backed MOUZ55c13,500$7,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,043.66650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked MOUZ55c12,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.8836152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Legacy22c11,101$2,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,475.652,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed MOUZ55c10,690$5,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,810.57454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked MOUZ64c10,137$6,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,693.7219757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Legacy2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Legacy20c9,273$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.681843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed MOUZ56c9,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,96067041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed MOUZ69c8,457$5,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,581.5822253.2%118 W · 104 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7a…98eebacked Legacy46c7,631$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,510.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed MOUZ56c7,500$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30023848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47b3…039cbacked Legacy19c7,453$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.995742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85f8…fe20backed MOUZ58c7,103$4,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,990.641457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Legacy47c6,989$3,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,25612449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb517…06ddbacked MOUZ55c6,607$3,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.356266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed MOUZ71c6,032$4,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.241070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Legacy42c6,024$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,530.172740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Legacy45c6,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Legacy44c6,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.9771645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed MOUZ57c5,885$3,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,531.184958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Legacy34c5,565$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8991,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Legacy45c5,560$2,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50219455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed MOUZ56c5,181$2,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.6417643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed MOUZ57c5,063$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.1366851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Legacy42c5,000$2,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,124.7737946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked MOUZ55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2506243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed MOUZ55c4,970$2,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,231.826155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bf0…72cebacked Legacy19c4,893$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.646647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Legacy44c4,500$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked Legacy43c4,500$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.9917540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Legacy19c4,469$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.169624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed MOUZ58c4,310$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.3412955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed MOUZ80c4,256$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.2628549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed MOUZ55c4,202$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,891.4320856.3%117 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e39…3e17backed MOUZ55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e5…f069backed MOUZ55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80014763.9%94 W · 53 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbeb2…79eebacked Legacy45c3,994$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.861233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked Legacy26c3,822$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.3819047.9%91 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed MOUZ60c3,510$2,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.877548%36 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Legacy44c3,500$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54011434.2%39 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Legacy20c3,137$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.871,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed MOUZ55c3,088$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.7521945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f42…880dbacked Legacy44c3,052$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed MOUZ80c3,008$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.621854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed MOUZ56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3209551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed MOUZ56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32017045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Legacy24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72046749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed MOUZ56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3204264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Legacy44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.9812956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Legacy17c2,759$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.965,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ73c2,635$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.036,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Legacy32c2,500$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.51,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Legacy45c2,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12522449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Legacy40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Legacy44c2,500$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9923653.8%127 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b3…b3a2backed Legacy45c2,500$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.9918547%87 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Legacy44c2,500$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.988051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Legacy45c2,441$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10019546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Legacy17c2,421$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.922,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed MOUZ56c2,400$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0564647.8%22 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Legacy44c2,272$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.6860248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x078f…796cbacked Legacy45c2,223$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.525536.4%20 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-34.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed Legacy45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.910150.5%51 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Legacy45c2,200$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99019346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x314c…975fbacked Legacy45c2,199$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005971.2%42 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Legacy46c2,196$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016732.9%55 W · 112 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cbf…dffebacked Legacy45c2,174$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.340%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc16c…a3aabacked MOUZ56c2,143$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.866256.5%35 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x830c…675dbacked Legacy23c2,141$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006251.6%32 W · 30 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked MOUZ56c2,013$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.7320458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Legacy45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90094645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Legacy19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Legacy44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8801,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed MOUZ55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90014950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6b…1a3ebacked MOUZ55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9003458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed MOUZ56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88017162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.