TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Paper Rexof Paper Rex, Leviatán Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$330,718
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$345,130

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,718 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Paper Rex67c145,000$97,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,756.0552455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Leviatán Esports32c99,819$31,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,9426643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Paper Rex55c13,881$7,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,203.0626050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Leviatán Esports43c9,470$4,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,040.6526650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Leviatán Esports38c9,434$3,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,586.6253159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Leviatán Esports54c7,011$3,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,783.3113050.8%66 W · 64 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Leviatán Esports40c6,661$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.8965559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Leviatán Esports35c5,108$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.71844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Leviatán Esports35c4,844$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.541,42251.3%729 W · 693 L+49.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Leviatán Esports16c4,403$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.371,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Leviatán Esports27c4,396$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.91,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Leviatán Esports28c4,331$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.365242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Leviatán Esports27c2,727$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.2717349.7%86 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Paper Rex47c2,556$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.7811450%57 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Leviatán Esports18c2,471$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.5760423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Leviatán Esports38c2,436$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.8310238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed Leviatán Esports2c2,400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick2cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Leviatán Esports31c2,326$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.421,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Leviatán Esports32c2,250$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Paper Rex67c2,147$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.9518056.1%101 W · 79 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Leviatán Esports42c2,000$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8302050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd4…9bcdbacked Paper Rex68c1,822$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.5212962.8%81 W · 48 L-9.5wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-10.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Leviatán Esports38c1,642$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.8378562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Paper Rex71c1,601$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.292842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Leviatán Esports39c1,538$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.4114850%74 W · 74 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Paper Rex67c1,500$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.6686747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Paper Rex68c1,460$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.0826051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x003b…ace5backed Leviatán Esports30c1,451$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Leviatán Esports31c1,411$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.921050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Leviatán Esports52c1,376$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.6954851.1%280 W · 268 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Leviatán Esports25c1,360$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.3851849.6%257 W · 261 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Paper Rex67c1,250$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.530652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bc9…e551backed Leviatán Esports33c1,200$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Leviatán Esports31c1,143$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.356259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed Paper Rex71c910.85$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.625058%29 W · 21 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Leviatán Esports31c884.19$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.3453455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Leviatán Esports41c840.5$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.6568458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc96…d916backed Leviatán Esports23c835.7$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1891926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Paper Rex61c796.72$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.9394361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Leviatán Esports39c723.97$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.3178344.1%345 W · 438 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Paper Rex65c694.58$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.027737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Leviatán Esports33c659.96$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9337545.6%171 W · 204 L-1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…5c4cbacked Leviatán Esports44c657.79$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.832552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Paper Rex65c633.25$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.076048.3%29 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53d6…bdd7backed Paper Rex68c591.24$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.24683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Paper Rex48c572.98$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.954452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Paper Rex65c559.38$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.2942140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Paper Rex69c557.48$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.3989344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked Paper Rex78c542.75$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5118261%111 W · 71 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Paper Rex58c508.03$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.6756557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb02…c292backed Paper Rex68c500.35$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.113571.4%25 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed Paper Rex69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1551643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Leviatán Esports35c495$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2511243.8%49 W · 63 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Paper Rex71c480.47$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.592369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Leviatán Esports34c476.65$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.066456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Leviatán Esports29c468.33$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.571,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Leviatán Esports37c467$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.0399945.9%459 W · 540 L-27.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Leviatán Esports28c444$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3221055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Paper Rex72c440.29$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2833153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7dd…12f0backed Paper Rex76c429.1$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.798144.4%36 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Leviatán Esports52c425.15$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22017150.9%87 W · 84 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e51…2412backed Paper Rex71c411.69$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.337745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked Leviatán Esports45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.554544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd054…c6bebacked Paper Rex61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec36…c7f9backed Leviatán Esports29c395.19$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Paper Rex70c379.25$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1822047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f09…f339backed Paper Rex52c350$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3013…279bbacked Paper Rex47c345.4$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.610552.4%55 W · 50 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5943…869ebacked Leviatán Esports47c339$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.032653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Leviatán Esports35c338.13$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9327947.7%133 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe767…9107backed Leviatán Esports34c321.41$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.96755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Leviatán Esports35c314.29$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103265.6%21 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65c4…3c1abacked Leviatán Esports30c307.56$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.271233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Paper Rex68c291.43$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.034252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Leviatán Esports35c287.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.742540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Paper Rex67c287$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Paper Rex70c285.07$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3414452.1%75 W · 69 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3323…213abacked Paper Rex71c283.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.582450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed Paper Rex71c281.26$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8814443.1%62 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Leviatán Esports26c270$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.218444.6%82 W · 102 L-0.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Paper Rex53c269.41$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.7423836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f135backed Leviatán Esports33c260$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Paper Rex71c254.4$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.463056.3%355 W · 275 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Leviatán Esports30c252$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4816133.5%54 W · 107 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Leviatán Esports30c251.35$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.114850.7%75 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Leviatán Esports36c250.09$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.756453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Leviatán Esports30c238.43$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.161,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Paper Rex74c235.77$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.443459.2%257 W · 177 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Leviatán Esports34c227.74$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4331046.5%144 W · 166 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Leviatán Esports62c227.6$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.61546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Leviatán Esports30c219.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2420855.8%116 W · 92 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb3e…9120backed Leviatán Esports32c209.38$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673030%9 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Paper Rex72c208.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3310975.2%82 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb941…b56bbacked Paper Rex63c208.02$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.147436.5%27 W · 47 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Leviatán Esports24c206.27$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0131227.6%86 W · 226 L-33.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa4b5…ecffbacked Paper Rex73c203.76$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.468357.8%48 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Paper Rex71c203.14$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5693649.3%461 W · 475 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Leviatán Esports26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1679…e5e1backed Paper Rex71c200$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde2a…6bfebacked Leviatán Esports13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267623.7%18 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.