TailMyPicks
Market

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Paper Rexof Paper Rex, Leviatán Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,987
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,987 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Leviatán Esports46c100,000$45,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,921.6752455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Paper Rex54c79,473$42,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,557.646643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Paper Rex55c6,000$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7305952.5%31 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Paper Rex54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3007847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Paper Rex55c4,726$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.712143%52 W · 69 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Paper Rex63c2,909$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.7768458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Paper Rex55c2,606$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.771338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Leviatán Esports37c2,567$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96014534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Leviatán Esports45c2,182$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9779340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Leviatán Esports41c1,829$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.1954851.1%280 W · 268 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Paper Rex57c1,750$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.2153455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Paper Rex55c1,468$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.9956557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Paper Rex56c1,410$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.896259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Leviatán Esports31c1,333$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.2410238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Leviatán Esports34c1,293$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.732152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Paper Rex56c1,200$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5246373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Paper Rex59c1,121$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.2253159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Paper Rex56c1,044$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.4315042%63 W · 87 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Paper Rex59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41026450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Leviatán Esports33c1,000$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.51560%9 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+42.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Leviatán Esports46c918$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.326051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Paper Rex58c753.59$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.595158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Leviatán Esports42c622.56$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.489051.1%46 W · 44 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Paper Rex56c600$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26430652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd054…c6bebacked Paper Rex59c588.64$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.11464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Paper Rex76c510.65$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2994361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Paper Rex55c503.7$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.718940.7%77 W · 112 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Leviatán Esports9c499.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Paper Rex68c458.52$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5278562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc566…f8d7backed Leviatán Esports3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214737.4%55 W · 92 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e51…2412backed Leviatán Esports21c396.68$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Leviatán Esports41c366$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.065858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked Paper Rex55c337.67$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.951883.3%15 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Leviatán Esports45c304.23$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7822047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Paper Rex76c266.73$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0219656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3323…213abacked Leviatán Esports38c263.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Leviatán Esports6c250.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.836040%24 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe767…9107backed Leviatán Esports45c243$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.966755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Leviatán Esports33c240.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0731227.6%86 W · 226 L-33.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb02…c292backed Paper Rex58c200.59$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.733571.4%25 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Leviatán Esports28c183.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.327947.7%133 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Paper Rex71c180.56$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.261,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Leviatán Esports44c172.76$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0142540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Leviatán Esports46c166.33$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.066637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Paper Rex59c159.48$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4415450%77 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b10…523bbacked Leviatán Esports16c155.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.93751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Leviatán Esports30c143$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.381,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Paper Rex60c128.47$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4385138.1%324 W · 527 L-51.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5943…869ebacked Paper Rex66c127.86$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.862653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Leviatán Esports38c127.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5493649.3%461 W · 475 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Leviatán Esports44c122.38$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8522455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Leviatán Esports37c121.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3742140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Paper Rex60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483956.4%22 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…bdebbacked Leviatán Esports15c119.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185115.7%8 W · 43 L-7.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked Leviatán Esports44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509148.4%44 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0096…2a83backed Leviatán Esports44c111.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed Paper Rex54c111.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.112166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+49.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53eb…8ce8backed Paper Rex54c110.83$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.98862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Leviatán Esports42c107.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.059942.4%42 W · 57 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Leviatán Esports35c100.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.571,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6e…5cfdbacked Leviatán Esports41c100.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.041540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Leviatán Esports45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4543459.2%257 W · 177 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b2…70f0backed Leviatán Esports43c99.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437020%14 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Leviatán Esports41c96.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4536446.2%168 W · 196 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Paper Rex60c89.34$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3442051.9%218 W · 202 L-21.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked Leviatán Esports17c88.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f48…0b0dbacked Leviatán Esports34c87.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018457.1%105 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Leviatán Esports40c86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.412945.7%59 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Paper Rex58c84.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.274252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Leviatán Esports34c78.11$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2878344.1%345 W · 438 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e3…87bbbacked Leviatán Esports16c75.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54a1…f88bbacked Paper Rex54c72.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.228936%32 W · 57 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x282b…cc76backed Leviatán Esports44c68.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306350.8%32 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x888d…c45dbacked Leviatán Esports22c67.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158744.8%39 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Paper Rex60c65.45$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1853742.1%226 W · 311 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Paper Rex54c64.76$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.794339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Paper Rex63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4912261.5%75 W · 47 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Leviatán Esports41c61.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.214252.1%74 W · 68 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x26d0…566ebacked Leviatán Esports33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Leviatán Esports34c57.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6718444.6%82 W · 102 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Leviatán Esports38c57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6693248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cf…3773backed Leviatán Esports33c56.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Leviatán Esports38c52.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021641.7%90 W · 126 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Paper Rex65c50.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8465559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5181…b4a2backed Paper Rex58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0181…9b5fbacked Leviatán Esports41c49.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9827850%139 W · 139 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Leviatán Esports25c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7855637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Paper Rex57c47.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3714454.2%78 W · 66 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Paper Rex54c45.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.013663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Leviatán Esports44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021144.1%93 W · 118 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea86…6fb4backed Leviatán Esports44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209255.4%51 W · 41 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed Leviatán Esports44c45.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014443.1%62 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbc…deedbacked Paper Rex57c42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.883151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Paper Rex54c40.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7851849.6%257 W · 261 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Paper Rex56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf6c…b9cfbacked Paper Rex57c39.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Paper Rex54c39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9414850%74 W · 74 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Paper Rex65c38.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4634954.7%191 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f2…a6fabacked Leviatán Esports42c37.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.953345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed Paper Rex58c37.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9328151.6%145 W · 136 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.