Music · resolved market
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd11bc66dd89d80bbf4f6e8f5a1af8bbeada5508097636a545c0e5a5fe47fcae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 73c | 440.13$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked No | 70c | 211.13$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 27c | 199.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed No | 30c | 193.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.66 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…abc7backed No | 24c | 154$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…4f29backed Yes | 25c | 135.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…303ebacked No | 75c | 134$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4293…bd78backed Yes | 45c | 56.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…801cbacked No | 36c | 52.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 33c | 40.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 59c | 38.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…3189backed No | 30c | 36.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 35.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ade…a123backed No | 70c | 34.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…8962backed Yes | 56c | 34.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 31c | 34.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…e43abacked Yes | 70c | 33.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 31c | 32.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…bc10backed No | 43c | 30.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 28.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8a…31eabacked No | 51c | 24.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897f…2334backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5f…b47abacked No | 75c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.