TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Novaqof Team Novaq, Rune Eaters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,160
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,108

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,160 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed Team Novaq49c8,264$4,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,188.466160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Rune Eaters61c6,788$4,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,169.2266851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Rune Eaters58c6,619$3,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.015,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Novaq47c2,529$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.286,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Team Novaq42c2,419$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.1438739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Rune Eaters49c2,225$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.0488330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Rune Eaters57c2,046$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.252,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed Team Novaq39c1,879$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.5510143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d6…18a2backed Team Novaq27c1,726$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.392437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd2…0abfbacked Team Novaq39c1,519$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.067843.6%34 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rune Eaters50c1,489$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.595,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Rune Eaters47c1,380$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.843544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Team Novaq40c1,348$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.0127940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed Team Novaq39c1,308$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.467138%27 W · 44 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Rune Eaters64c1,153$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.9933553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Team Novaq39c1,142$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.838841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Rune Eaters58c1,101$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.638345.8%38 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Rune Eaters51c1,092$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.322,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Team Novaq39c1,087$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.5423732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Novaq43c1,015$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.023,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Rune Eaters64c1,009$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.7929449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Team Novaq40c999.98$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.9937145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Rune Eaters62c789.46$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.4738052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Novaq79c783.61$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.427,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Rune Eaters59c739.89$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.350051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked Rune Eaters54c713.33$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38514544.8%65 W · 80 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked Team Novaq42c699.99$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.999732%31 W · 66 L-11.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Rune Eaters60c666.67$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40035460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Rune Eaters58c663.19$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.3931345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Team Novaq39c646$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.0617448.3%84 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c2…7458backed Rune Eaters6c593.93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.443930.8%12 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+28.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Rune Eaters16c574.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.443237.7%163 W · 269 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Novaq35c572.89$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.912,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Novaq56c562.71$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.562,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x645f…2c7fbacked Team Novaq41c553.67$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.048854.5%48 W · 40 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d4f…6e52backed Rune Eaters22c543.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83bf…8aa4backed Rune Eaters44c518.84$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.492528%7 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Rune Eaters58c513.95$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.282,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6754…e4fcbacked Team Novaq38c501$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.629153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+123.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Team Novaq41c493.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.517652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed Rune Eaters64c468.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30031761.2%194 W · 123 L+22.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1405…9882backed Rune Eaters59c444.23$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.874042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0284…97f6backed Rune Eaters64c404.36$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.795251.9%27 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Team Novaq68c403.2$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.981,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Rune Eaters63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25255941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Team Novaq39c393.13$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.531,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Novaq56c392.22$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.354,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed Team Novaq39c383.68$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.6338835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Rune Eaters54c368.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20047447.5%225 W · 249 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Rune Eaters64c362.12$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.1741850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team Novaq38c348.06$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.155,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Team Novaq56c344.71$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.153,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked Team Novaq42c342$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.361127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Team Novaq41c337.79$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.4740542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Team Novaq67c335.13$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.1975438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a2e…e1b2backed Team Novaq58c327.46$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.0320156.7%114 W · 87 L-0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Novaq42c318.97$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.041,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Team Novaq43c318.6$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.622342.2%94 W · 129 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Rune Eaters20c315.9$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6920242.1%85 W · 117 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Novaq36c313.53$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9363541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked Team Novaq42c310$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.817142.1%72 W · 99 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Team Novaq43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.0533340.2%134 W · 199 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Novaq39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.1891945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Rune Eaters57c289.66$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1126155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Rune Eaters73c272.84$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20044675.3%336 W · 110 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe04…1481backed Team Novaq42c261.9$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.910541%43 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Team Novaq41c256.64$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.4228434.9%99 W · 185 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed Team Novaq39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4112157.9%70 W · 51 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Rune Eaters60c251.35$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.754156.1%23 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Rune Eaters61c245.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15098856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf48…36c2backed Team Novaq41c236.24$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.384129.3%12 W · 29 L-6.3wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed Rune Eaters59c229.84$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.519849%48 W · 50 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Team Novaq43c217.66$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.4777351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6b…b245backed Rune Eaters60c205$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1233250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Team Novaq19c203.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.568659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc056…e188backed Rune Eaters50c201.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008751.7%45 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Rune Eaters32c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6720944.5%93 W · 116 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Team Novaq53c200$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9319857.6%114 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed Team Novaq74c199.97$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9941050.7%208 W · 202 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa825…2ef0backed Team Novaq50c196.94$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4714645.2%66 W · 80 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf6…b29fbacked Team Novaq51c195.02$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.428855.7%49 W · 39 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ca…bc47backed Team Novaq42c180.95$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.956741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked Team Novaq39c179.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.7935131.1%109 W · 242 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa41…255bbacked Rune Eaters56c177.81$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Novaq58c176.55$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.642,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab87…117ebacked Team Novaq54c172.73$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7317449.4%86 W · 88 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5160…ac0bbacked Rune Eaters80c171.44$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.691361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Rune Eaters59c169.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025554.5%139 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Rune Eaters49c167.77$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2112118.2%22 W · 99 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Novaq41c165.11$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8319954.8%109 W · 90 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b4c…6952backed Rune Eaters61c163.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Novaq62c162.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.292,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94bf…1d2fbacked Rune Eaters63c158.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Team Novaq60c151.83$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7960032.3%194 W · 406 L-49.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2eb9…8d05backed Team Novaq39c151.28$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2814653.4%78 W · 68 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…7db2backed Team Novaq45c150.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.218941.6%37 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Team Novaq42c147.48$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5435947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed Team Novaq41c139.97$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1827156.1%152 W · 119 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Rune Eaters57c139.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.244,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe432…934abacked Team Novaq41c139$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.013756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.