China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc77337b8412059d0a17bb75ea0de2d398bf756464c76161582b22afe4777e3cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $301,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 469 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 8,700$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.61 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 23c | 7,641$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 18c | 7,183$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 6,602$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 6,143$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 57c | 6,099$3,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,637.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 6,085$4,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 5,966$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 42c | 5,788$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,411.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 61c | 5,128$3,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 4,985$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 4,525$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 4,137$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.01 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 14c | 3,969$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 47c | 2,671$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…1c3abacked No | 24c | 2,497$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 77c | 2,493$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.07 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…f73abacked No | 44c | 2,127$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 71c | 2,122$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 1,997$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 1,988$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.93 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 20c | 1,817$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 21c | 1,785$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 16c | 1,662$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 17c | 1,578$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 77c | 1,553$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 18c | 1,528$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 18c | 1,456$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 65c | 1,440$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed No | 32c | 1,414$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 25c | 1,408$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 28c | 1,401$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 1,369$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.21 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 62c | 1,349$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed No | 14c | 1,346$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 72c | 1,334$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,299$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 33cpaid | +387.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 52c | 1,280$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 17c | 1,144$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed Yes | 69c | 1,134$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 25c | 1,110$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 58c | 1,103$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +586.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 20c | 1,101$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 26c | 1,093$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 16c | 1,078$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 4c | 1,066$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 74c | 1,027$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 38c | 1,007$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…3455backed Yes | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 28c | 988.91$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 40c | 959.97$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…303ebacked Yes | 64c | 914.73$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 67c | 892.24$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 48c | 823.69$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 18c | 814.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 39c | 809.43$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 18c | 798.78$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda40…4a27backed No | 31c | 766.84$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…6be6backed No | 57c | 754.54$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 14c | 752.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 37c | 747.92$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 65c | 698.73$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 686.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Yes | 58c | 661.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca6…75dbbacked No | 27c | 644.36$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…50c8backed Yes | 73c | 635.57$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…31ebbacked Yes | 80c | 619.58$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 52c | 607.37$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 600$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 71c | 595.78$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 14c | 585.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 27c | 576.8$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…2f64backed No | 52c | 575.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…40c0backed Yes | 73c | 571.39$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 66c | 536.84$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 69c | 499.99$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 17c | 478.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…5f73backed No | 20c | 471.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…da73backed Yes | 79c | 459.96$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 76c | 450$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 425.52$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…22c0backed Yes | 80c | 424.81$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…25acbacked Yes | 70c | 424.11$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 74c | 420$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…7b2abacked No | 15c | 404.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 19c | 404.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 20c | 401.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 74c | 399.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…8cf8backed No | 51c | 399.07$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed Yes | 62c | 394.66$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 5c | 393.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 73c | 389$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…cf1fbacked Yes | 77c | 388.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e3…de04backed No | 20c | 387.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed No | 16c | 386.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 24c | 381.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 16c | 380.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 13c | 379.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.