China Taiwan · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bdbae59b55dc4b9ac18c8d548de7bd015dec031aa1b23906105b1c5ca4af1c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 1c | 21,488$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 14,066$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,938$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 3c | 5,138$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…88f2backed Yes | 1c | 3,851$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,239$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,222$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3300backed Yes | 7c | 2,226$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 3c | 1,889$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 1,830$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 2c | 1,808$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…8a03backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…f2cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 2c | 1,375$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa035…0e8ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,310$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…68f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,225$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 2c | 1,193$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b18…5df0backed Yes | 2c | 1,186$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 2c | 1,183$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…fcc2backed Yes | 1c | 1,065$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 1c | 999.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 898.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 732.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8a…a803backed Yes | 2c | 718.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 4c | 678.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 538.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 510.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 3c | 489.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…46fcbacked Yes | 2c | 475.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…a830backed Yes | 4c | 343.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…26fabacked Yes | 22c | 90.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.