China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1081540637c6d2d14a3fc3344809a0ba08e59c7c15d3cc551ac391197f33b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $314,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 355 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 18,056$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.21 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd8…07febacked Yes | 9c | 17,834$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x638f…a5eabacked Yes | 22c | 12,955$2,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,871.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…1c3abacked Yes | 17c | 10,579$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef8…1423backed Yes | 17c | 10,228$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…270fbacked Yes | 29c | 7,562$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 66c | 7,010$4,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 6,210$4,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 6,056$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 5,487$4,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…74fcbacked Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…80dcbacked Yes | 7c | 4,017$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,657$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1df…1d2fbacked Yes | 26c | 3,564$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 40c | 3,493$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…f6bebacked Yes | 48c | 3,296$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…da73backed Yes | 20c | 3,062$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 12c | 3,001$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked Yes | 15c | 2,937$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…bd7fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,865$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 2,703$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…eb98backed Yes | 43c | 2,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 2,231$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 73c | 2,083$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.95 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 10c | 2,016$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…ff3abacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 1,994$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.1 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…5b6bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,918$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 8c | 1,905$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…0f0ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,896$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…0673backed Yes | 53c | 1,875$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…ddc6backed Yes | 13c | 1,622$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea3…36d2backed Yes | 19c | 1,567$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…de8dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,546$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 8c | 1,521$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 2c | 1,492$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 79c | 1,490$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad6…d42abacked Yes | 45c | 1,488$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…68f0backed Yes | 31c | 1,344$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec9e…0bedbacked Yes | 36c | 1,329$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 1,273$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 1,252$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…3dafbacked Yes | 19c | 1,218$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…c8e4backed Yes | 30c | 1,208$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…86efbacked Yes | 49c | 1,207$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,206$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.46 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…1377backed Yes | 40c | 1,159$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 22c | 1,144$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 1,119$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Yes | 15c | 1,100$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2896…2e00backed Yes | 39c | 1,093$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 75c | 1,076$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,067$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 27c | 1,045$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 60c | 1,029$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 1,003$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd795…6fcdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Yes | 56c | 1,000$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…5866backed Yes | 16c | 999.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…4069backed Yes | 19c | 984.94$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 7c | 982.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…8cf8backed Yes | 45c | 948.17$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 937.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…22c0backed Yes | 36c | 929.47$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…93d1backed Yes | 36c | 892.06$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 28c | 867.77$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 78c | 839.99$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 25c | 835.76$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 3c | 830.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 25c | 828.66$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…220ebacked Yes | 24c | 821.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…a973backed Yes | 12c | 810$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 27c | 797.57$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 79c | 749.17$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…2a2cbacked Yes | 4c | 725$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 60c | 664.45$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +176.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 16c | 641.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…19a7backed Yes | 8c | 635.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a78bbacked Yes | 11c | 621.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 11c | 617.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 615.13$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 26c | 613.78$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 594.2$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…793bbacked Yes | 4c | 590.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…6fa6backed Yes | 39c | 574.2$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe15c…cc9fbacked Yes | 42c | 571.72$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 75c | 556.02$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 58c | 542.35$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 61c | 532.04$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…339dbacked Yes | 23c | 521.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 499.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 18c | 495$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdc…f830backed Yes | 17c | 494.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 46c | 491.71$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fed…0d36backed Yes | 42c | 488.64$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b18…5df0backed Yes | 13c | 475.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…0149backed Yes | 47c | 475.16$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 42c | 466$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 7c | 461.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 31c | 459.88$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.