China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x475ccfaaa4cb79646d023b622dd586711d6926bd6d19c32727c51a26a80906df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 14,779$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 0c | 9,748$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x601f…76adbacked Yes | 1c | 8,728$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…73dbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,585$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,938$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked Yes | 2c | 4,064$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 3c | 2,503$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1d…96adbacked Yes | 2c | 2,257$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5f…38b9backed Yes | 2c | 1,961$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,724$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bc…a8ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,714$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,648$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,533$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…35f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,284$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,113$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…e1a6backed Yes | 8c | 649.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea30…0833backed Yes | 4c | 625.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…b472backed Yes | 16c | 617.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…b820backed Yes | 3c | 556.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 493.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…1b2ebacked Yes | 2c | 403.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 11c | 310$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 7c | 284.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 15c | 259.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 156.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 20c | 120.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 106.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…e98fbacked Yes | 22c | 66.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 77c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 62.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…dd8abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 24.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed No | 79c | 24.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 80c | 19.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.