Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5978aa9cd3a58b4880946d6bb90c9e00f2515d3f0df2bb3cda5f8f5c7daa1faa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b73…c441backed Yes | 55c | 694$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.7 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 46c | 652.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.47 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked No | 45c | 652$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…303ebacked Yes | 60c | 557.79$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 38c | 313$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…11a5backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 28c | 167.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.02 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 33c | 125$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 109.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 52c | 92.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 36c | 76.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 40c | 64.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…2adcbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed Yes | 49c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 37c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 42c | 44.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 63c | 29.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.