Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x785ad276f72c1e998afea67b33e7de0b354993e4d143bdac7fefc27aff23c71d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalinskayaof Bencic, Kalinskaya
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x056b…303ebacked Bencic | 49c | 2,045$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Kalinskaya | 51c | 1,824$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.61 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Bencic | 46c | 944.64$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.09 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Kalinskaya | 53c | 905.44$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.77 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kalinskaya | 27c | 822.1$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.9 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Kalinskaya | 49c | 741.85$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.78 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Kalinskaya | 11c | 649.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.43 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Bencic | 47c | 599.98$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.99 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Bencic | 51c | 593.27$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Bencic | 50c | 500.35$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.7 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kalinskaya | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kalinskaya | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Kalinskaya | 50c | 351.95$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Kalinskaya | 50c | 343$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Kalinskaya | 51c | 327.37$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.56 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Bencic | 51c | 304.47$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.28 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Kalinskaya | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…258abacked Bencic | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Kalinskaya | 33c | 195.32$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.14 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Kalinskaya | 51c | 189.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…d91bbacked Bencic | 51c | 109.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Bencic | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…2dbabacked Bencic | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Kalinskaya | 12c | 99.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Bencic | 49c | 93.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…7158backed Bencic | 46c | 91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Bencic | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kalinskaya | 48c | 55.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Kalinskaya | 52c | 54.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked Bencic | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kalinskaya | 51c | 48.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Bencic | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Kalinskaya | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Bencic | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Kalinskaya | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kalinskaya | 50c | 24.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Kalinskaya | 60c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 291 | 47.8%139 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Kalinskaya | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5)this page
- Bencic vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Bencic vs KalinskayaBencic won
- Set 2 Winner: Bencic vs KalinskayaKalinskaya won
- Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Anna KalinskayaBelinda Bencic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.