UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e4f34dd341df39a6742b16c4862cd923d031a46655ee407061bdb8b5316a1a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alessandro Costaof Matt Schnell, Alessandro Costa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $911,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $881,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $911,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 400,042$318,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,219.74 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Matt Schnell | 20c | 150,000$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Matt Schnell | 21c | 133,333$28,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,999.93 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Matt Schnell | 20c | 100,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 80,336$64,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,261.08 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 50,054$10,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,511.3 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 48,129$10,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,104.37 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Matt Schnell | 20c | 30,949$6,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,169.23 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 25,000$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Matt Schnell | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 10,000$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 7,442$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.1 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 7,401$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.21 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Matt Schnell | 21c | 6,250$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3695…c66cbacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 5,600$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Alessandro Costa | 77c | 4,017$3,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.91 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Matt Schnell | 23c | 3,150$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Alessandro Costa | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.97 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Alessandro Costa | 79c | 2,301$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Matt Schnell | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 1,853$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.13 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 1,720$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Matt Schnell | 17c | 1,615$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.42 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Matt Schnell | 19c | 1,366$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.46 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Matt Schnell | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Matt Schnell | 22c | 1,300$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Alessandro Costa | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 1,242$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.41 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Matt Schnell | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 1,127$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.48 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Matt Schnell | 20c | 1,065$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.02 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…921bbacked Matt Schnell | 21c | 1,019$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Matt Schnell | 20c | 950$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Matt Schnell | 21c | 930.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Matt Schnell | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Matt Schnell | 19c | 897.11$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.45 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Matt Schnell | 16c | 872.81$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.83 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Matt Schnell | 18c | 855$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x676b…5bc3backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 812.5$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…b7aabacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 764.84$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6482backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 759.49$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Matt Schnell | 20c | 744$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…5f4abacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 651.81$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…fbbcbacked Matt Schnell | 22c | 641.02$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.02 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…32c0backed Matt Schnell | 20c | 620$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Matt Schnell | 21c | 618.95$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 584.28$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.07 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 570$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 507.83$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Matt Schnell | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…06ddbacked Alessandro Costa | 79c | 499.87$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Matt Schnell | 20c | 460.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Matt Schnell | 22c | 459.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 435$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…c28bbacked Matt Schnell | 22c | 407.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…6ab2backed Matt Schnell | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 391.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…3b17backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 382.14$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6afa…e227backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 380.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Matt Schnell | 19c | 333.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Matt Schnell | 14c | 331.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 310.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Matt Schnell | 16c | 310.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…a2ccbacked Alessandro Costa | 79c | 298.7$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 295$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Alessandro Costa | 78c | 291.16$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Matt Schnell | 19c | 286.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…fc0bbacked Matt Schnell | 21c | 275.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Matt Schnell | 20c | 273.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 255$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…e7cabacked Alessandro Costa | 78c | 254.72$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 110 | 78.2%86 W · 24 L | +15.6wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3111backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Matt Schnell | 20c | 249.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Matt Schnell | 22c | 238.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 224.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +140.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Matt Schnell | 8c | 223.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 222.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Matt Schnell | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…ae2bbacked Matt Schnell | 22c | 217.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Alessandro Costa | 80c | 216.51$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…da27backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 212$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Matt Schnell | 18c | 208.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Alessandro Costa | 79c | 207.26$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Matt Schnell | 21c | 206.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Matt Schnell | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 199.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…07f8backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 199.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 195.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…714cbacked Alessandro Costa | 80c | 184.42$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Matt Schnell | 16c | 179.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0538…db33backed Matt Schnell | 16c | 175$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Matt Schnell | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Matt Schnell | 21c | 151.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Alessandro Costa win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.