UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1faad4b65b6469604776141acbbf42e2b06d6c65df4c1eceba2feef1994d549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 40c | 1,310$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.24 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 48c | 1,032$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.61 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 52c | 999.98$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d8…e8ffbacked No | 26c | 753.42$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.89 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2533…a9a0backed Yes | 50c | 717.8$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 73c | 302.67$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 74c | 218.42$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8761backed Yes | 62c | 200.01$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 46c | 178.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x676b…5bc3backed No | 54c | 142.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b9…1d4dbacked Yes | 51c | 112.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 107.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Yes | 47c | 104.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…8b0fbacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Yes | 58c | 91.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 48c | 84.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 50c | 71.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1133…16a8backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 25c | 46.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…eeabbacked Yes | 61c | 31.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 45c | 31.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 28.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…6783backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…b13abacked Yes | 71c | 24.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…94f7backed No | 48c | 21.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)Gabriel Bonfim won
- Will Belal Muhammad win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Gabriel Bonfim win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.