UFC · resolved market
O/U 3.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9abcdc2d4d121e1bbefceb364486fdb906166312690f052477955fcc54ec386e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 41c | 44,267$17,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,982.47 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 59c | 24,477$14,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,916.33 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 59c | 15,500$9,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,355 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Over | 60c | 3,041$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.59 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Under | 42c | 1,672$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 58c | 1,453$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.63 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Over | 60c | 975.68$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.68 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 58c | 669.97$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.03 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Under | 42c | 470.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 59c | 158.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 59c | 128.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Under | 40c | 117$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Over | 60c | 117$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Under | 40c | 80.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 59c | 57.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f22…468bbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd7…0c4fbacked Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…b937backed Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 60c | 36.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 60c | 35.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd9…1159backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…73c1backed Under | 41c | 29.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…2dadbacked Under | 41c | 28.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under | 42c | 26.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x025a…2ffdbacked Under | 40c | 25.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…1d6ebacked Over | 60c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 3.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)Gabriel Bonfim won
- Will Belal Muhammad win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Gabriel Bonfim win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.