UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f2fb072131d322dba0516b4abddb17ecc2301ba9396b6c956fd2ed80bf42f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kai Asakuraof Kai Asakura, Cameron Smotherman
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Kai Asakura | 73c | 54,862$40,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,861.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 13,500$3,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,644.98 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 13,067$3,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,538.64 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 10,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.95 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…6280backed Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 9,036$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.38 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 5,997$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.31 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…2079backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2d…6443backed Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 4,040$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.2 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 3,700$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…b6abbacked Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 2,085$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e495backed Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 2,015$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…f7d7backed Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6575backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 1,705$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 1,501$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.3 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…724fbacked Kai Asakura | 73c | 1,400$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 1,380$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.6 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Cameron Smotherman | 4c | 1,115$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Kai Asakura | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 953.13$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.92 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Kai Asakura | 72c | 837.43$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.48 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…b72abacked Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 834$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 823.61$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.61 | 52 | 73.1%38 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Kai Asakura | 71c | 816.51$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.79 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…9ae0backed Cameron Smotherman | 31c | 788$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.34 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663d…7d23backed Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 785.71$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac6b…a962backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 761.04$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.04 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +32%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 671.43$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Kai Asakura | 72c | 662.5$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cameron Smotherman | 4c | 658.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…e3c2backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 638.89$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.89 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cameron Smotherman | 5c | 583.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 560.59$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kai Asakura | 71c | 554.71$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.86 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf450…cb65backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 521.61$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 506.64$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Kai Asakura | 71c | 500.72$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.88 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Kai Asakura | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Kai Asakura | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 457.82$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Kai Asakura | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676b…5bc3backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…a0a9backed Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 414$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Kai Asakura | 72c | 411.1$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.11 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…b574backed Kai Asakura | 73c | 392.18$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…26cebacked Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 350$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5341…2b42backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…ec62backed Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 343.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Kai Asakura | 71c | 332.6$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…921bbacked Kai Asakura | 72c | 280.56$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 272.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kai Asakura | 73c | 270.58$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 265.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Kai Asakura | 73c | 261.37$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 249.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked Cameron Smotherman | 41c | 242$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…9ea9backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 208.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 188.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Kai Asakura | 70c | 170$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 151.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Kai Asakura | 73c | 150.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…1cc2backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a68…98aebacked Kai Asakura | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 265 | 69.4%184 W · 81 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Kai Asakura | 73c | 137.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa476…8cfcbacked Kai Asakura | 73c | 137.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Kai Asakura | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d09…a9d8backed Kai Asakura | 73c | 130.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…442bbacked Cameron Smotherman | 27c | 128.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 111.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…d4d3backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 106.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015a…99d0backed Cameron Smotherman | 30c | 105.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2664backed Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Kai Asakura | 72c | 100.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…029bbacked Kai Asakura | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Kai Asakura | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Kai Asakura | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Kai Asakura | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Cameron Smotherman | 28c | 93.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f25…4f11backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 86.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7d…695fbacked Kai Asakura | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1d82backed Kai Asakura | 71c | 83.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3371backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 82.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…bc65backed Kai Asakura | 72c | 81.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Cameron Smotherman | 29c | 80.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Kai Asakura | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037f…dd7ebacked Cameron Smotherman | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Main Card)this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Kai Asakura win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.