Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfda6cf378bf966c249d656a2ec5ce7384fe65d6f7d0f1ca891b5a160824d7082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 73c | 1,000$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.46 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 61c | 346.32$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 48c | 286.55$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 247$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 238.65$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…a387backed Yes | 48c | 209.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 47c | 200.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 48c | 197.49$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 182.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 55c | 181.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 170.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 165$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 162.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 150.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 149.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 149.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 136$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 133.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 53c | 130.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 122.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 67c | 117$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 49c | 116.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 49c | 116.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 53c | 115$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 65c | 109.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 48c | 103.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 51c | 103.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 100.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 99.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…ab8abacked Yes | 51c | 98.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 57c | 96.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 40c | 89.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 37c | 88.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 83.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 45c | 77.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 52c | 76.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 74.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 73.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…dfcabacked Yes | 42c | 72.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 70.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 67.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 47c | 59.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 58.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 41c | 58.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 52c | 53.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 34c | 50.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 48.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 49c | 48.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 54c | 46.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 43.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 42.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 44c | 40.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 40.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221e…6dcabacked Yes | 51c | 39.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 51c | 39.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 42c | 36.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 45c | 35.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b3…7a56backed Yes | 50c | 34.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 61c | 32.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…7137backed Yes | 60c | 31.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…7034backed No | 59c | 31.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f5…2c81backed Yes | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…43a7backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…4b09backed Yes | 49c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2c…5890backed Yes | 42c | 29.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 29.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 54c | 28.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed Yes | 50c | 27.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 60c | 26.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes | 58c | 26.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 61c | 26.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 39c | 26.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 53c | 25.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked No | 60c | 25.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 52c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 54c | 23.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…3291backed Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 53cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 22.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.