TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,414 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes39c299.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6917140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes25c279.59$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.692,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c253.77$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.485,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c247$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No30c240.14$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.581,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes36c221.16$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.171,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf0e6…ab8abacked No74c215.71$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes33c198.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c169.61$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.0510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No48c161$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.576755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No75c150$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.539968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No71c150$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaafb…a387backed No74c146.46$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.73616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick58cpaid-74.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes30c144.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0440025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No13c137.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6242130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes29c134.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1960519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c134.53$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No66c119.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes35c116.82$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.665,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes28c115$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5540237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes33c111.09$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8946240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No66c110.92$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.321,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No69c103.03$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.271,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes43c98.38$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3117241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes30c92.22$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.553938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No52c92.21$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.833,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes33c82.41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c78.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.277,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No75c75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.441,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No66c74.89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3788650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No41c73.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.841,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No68c72.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.961,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes30c63.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5861629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c61.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.42,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No38c59.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.794,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No48c58.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.872,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No18c57.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No61c55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.551,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3642…c2f0backed No74c54.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e0d…bc8dbacked No66c51.32$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes23c50.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8125335.2%89 W · 164 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.993,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes30c49.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4218033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes31c47.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.931,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x521e…a47bbacked Yes33c46.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.135733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No68c45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4763757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes29c44.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.632,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes33c42.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1161249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes29c40.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.932,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc06d…6732backed No63c39.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.192556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No67c37.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes32c37.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6310966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes40c37.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.54553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f24…64b5backed No53c37.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.854040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.815,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes30c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No72c33.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes30c33.38$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2640525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c32.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.464,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No62c32.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No67c31.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7155855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No73c30.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1968645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.93,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No71c28.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3819057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3225…d1cfbacked Yes37c28.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.841145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2a…e862backed No72c27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.356861.8%42 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No68c24.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9420958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No74c23.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1250860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33b…0b31backed No66c22.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aaa…808bbacked No71c22.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.881070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No52c22.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.529262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No66c20.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.566163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No71c20.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.678663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87b3…d03bbacked No70c19.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc9…dba2backed No69c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.371573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4204…165abacked No71c16.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.545455.6%30 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No64c15.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0824768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45ee…983cbacked Yes77c15.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.647152.1%37 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb1…c579backed No69c14.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.39per pick52cpaid-74.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.