Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0a6023affdb11a0865fc097c7f01b79a1750bce1fbaaecf7ed29d26b7c8913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 4c | 1,589$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 37c | 808.51$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.79 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 398.76$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 10c | 362.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 56c | 297.21$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 48c | 284.46$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.26 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 283.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 277.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 244.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…bd02backed Yes | 63c | 234.86$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 29c | 207.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 51c | 199.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 196.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 34c | 190.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 12c | 183.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 181.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 47c | 179.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 49c | 175$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…1276backed Yes | 61c | 163.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 43c | 160.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 155.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 53c | 150.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 141.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 35c | 135.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 132.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 129.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 50c | 127$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 51c | 123.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 123$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 121.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 56c | 120.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 112.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 54c | 111.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 58c | 107.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 57c | 102.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 47c | 95.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 57c | 95.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 49c | 93.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 62c | 88.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 87.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 43c | 81.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 81.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 74.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 72.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 42c | 69.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 62.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 50c | 62.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7a…59a2backed Yes | 51c | 59.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 58.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 58.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…3268backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 47.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 76c | 47.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 33c | 46.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 45c | 45.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 45.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 39.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed Yes | 52c | 38.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 50c | 38.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 51c | 37.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 52c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 41c | 33.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 45c | 31.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 48c | 30.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 44c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 47c | 27.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 57c | 26.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 41c | 24.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 51c | 23.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 22.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 54c | 21.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…4c72backed No | 59c | 21.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes | 48c | 21.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.