TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,306 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xadaa…875abacked Yes4c1,589$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8413134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes37c808.51$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.7970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c398.76$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.418,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes10c362.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2289544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No56c297.21$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.0365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes48c284.46$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.261,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c283.11$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes32c277.9$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes22c244.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.84,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…bd02backed Yes63c234.86$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes29c207.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No51c199.26$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.131,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No55c196.79$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.761,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes34c190.09$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2849547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes12c183.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.581,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c181.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.35,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes47c179.76$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.161,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes49c175$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a12…1276backed Yes61c163.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed Yes43c160.87$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1711148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes10c155.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.948,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No53c150.64$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5119057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes45c141.87$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes35c135.59$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5626344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No61c132.39$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.41,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes45c129.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.042,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No50c127$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7763757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes51c123.51$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0140237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c123$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.265,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No55c121.06$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No56c120.18$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5358422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes13c112.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.534,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204c…b31dbacked Yes54c111.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605932.2%19 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No58c107.92$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No57c102.14$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.321,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4468335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes47c95.81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.374,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No57c95.25$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9625358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes49c93.9$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3346743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No62c88.35$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5676755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No72c87.76$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.483,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes49c85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.561,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes43c81.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.41,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c81.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.513,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c74.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.533,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes45c74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.318337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No53c72.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.47,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab36…38dabacked Yes42c69.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.63745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes17c62.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.443,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes50c62.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.112,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.414,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7a…59a2backed Yes51c59.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c58.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.241,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes51c58.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5134934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0743441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…3268backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes48c48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0432738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes49c47.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.321,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No76c47.37$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes33c46.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3816934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes45c45.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8625549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes44c45.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c45.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked No53c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0616354%88 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No68c39.76$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.531,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf368…cfb1backed Yes52c38.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed No50c38.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.115752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes47c38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.725560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe256…0408backed Yes51c37.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.533641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x587c…603fbacked No52c37.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.25671.4%40 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No67c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.542,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf90…62b9backed Yes64c34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.893177.4%24 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+39.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes41c33.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7312747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No58c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No45c31.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1527464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes48c30.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes44c30.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.345236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1966735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes48c29.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.428649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.31,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No47c27.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.475,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes57c26.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8514745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes41c24.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.032,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes49c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.764,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes51c23.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.373,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No70c22.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5799961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No54c21.66$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9179255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd629…4c72backed No59c21.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.821533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes48c21.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.