TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf368…cfb1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: NBA, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 57 out of 100; worst Valorant at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT2263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+98.7%+$14.8
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+34%+$5.1
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+68.7%+$10.31
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$24.95
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+105.8%+$12.7
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or higher on May 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+40.9%+$4.91
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+45.2%+$7.69
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$8.79
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+54.5%+$19.06
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$7.9
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.32
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$5.6
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+40.2%+$7.64
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
All 22 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: LNG (-1.5) vs Ultra Prime (+1.5)backed Ultra Prime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+130.6%+$20.9
LoL: Conviction vs NRG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Seasonbacked Conviction · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffsbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$56.89
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seasonbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonbacked Disguised · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.62
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.33
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.1
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+500.4%+$109.57
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+41.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked Evil Geniuses · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.46
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.