Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b1033549e69649a9d63f54ea97022d4b1f87c3f0945d419f6c80d27f3a8b110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 7c | 711.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 77c | 515.05$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.81 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 63c | 412.57$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 29c | 401.89$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 12c | 393.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 45c | 321.91$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.81 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 299.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 257$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 256.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 9c | 242.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 226$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 220.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 205.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 201.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 53c | 165.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 25c | 165.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 10c | 155.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 121.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 112.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 52c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 50c | 103$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 53c | 97.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 24c | 94.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked Yes | 48c | 87.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 54c | 84.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 77.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 61.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 52.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 47.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 46.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 45.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 28c | 42.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 40.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 43c | 39.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191d…9db8backed Yes | 49c | 38.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 52c | 38.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 46c | 31.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 57c | 31.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 43c | 29.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed Yes | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 28.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 75c | 26.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 25.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 25.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 43c | 23.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 58c | 20.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 19.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 78c | 18.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.