Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x076e302b499c12f671ea76d73b931631df784f1234c943f6c02926579e45eb5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 79c | 1,478$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.42 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 19c | 655$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 349.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.77 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 257.3$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 42c | 238.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 214$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 74c | 199.96$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 176.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 145.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 133.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 71c | 117.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 67c | 115.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 114.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 41c | 107.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 62c | 96.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 92.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 85.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 74c | 71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 69.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 64.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 61.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 60.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…6be9backed No | 57c | 53.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 43c | 46.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 42c | 35.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 43c | 34.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 33.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed Yes | 47c | 31.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…a0b2backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 57c | 27.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 42c | 26.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 43c | 25.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 54c | 24.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 23.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 23.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 76c | 22.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 63c | 21.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed Yes | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 72c | 14.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 75c | 14.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.