Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x489e84f2887dc93cc7e28a0725037482660662d58307a977ec1bee81cf6300f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 55c | 1,350$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.29 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,045$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 36c | 410.45$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 409.73$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 51c | 402.25$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.19 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…b858backed Yes | 48c | 382.88$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 77c | 368.47$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 76c | 338.27$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 28c | 313.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 287.38$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 259.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 27c | 250.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 223.76$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 26c | 222.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 33c | 217.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 23c | 210.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…22e4backed Yes | 36c | 199.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 78c | 191.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 168.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 42c | 168$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 54c | 166.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 36c | 164.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 161.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 149.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 147.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 36c | 138.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 136.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 135.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 129.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 125.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 124.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 120.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 48c | 117.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 110.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 109.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 25c | 107.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 37c | 101.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 97.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 75c | 91.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 28c | 81.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 39c | 76.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 75.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed No | 67c | 74.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 64c | 74.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 18c | 73.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 34c | 73.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…7731backed No | 69c | 68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 27c | 65.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 64.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 62.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 32c | 60.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked No | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 61c | 57.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7783…84bebacked No | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +95%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…6eacbacked No | 75c | 54.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 52c | 53.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…8ad5backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…fc4cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…c525backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…2affbacked Yes | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 46.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…1810backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 44.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 34c | 44.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 57c | 42.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e91…11d7backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 75c | 39.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 73c | 37.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 75c | 35.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c94…6050backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 76c | 34.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 76c | 32.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 31.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 55c | 31.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 34c | 30.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x673f…727bbacked No | 66c | 30.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 62c | 27.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed No | 73c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.