Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x492a771f1542e149af8b4380b9853c5a0d21205137f7f6f3ff74a9d27e5d081d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 2c | 5,588$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 18c | 1,162$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.83 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 1,001$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 502.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 398.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 387.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.55 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 46c | 288.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.03 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 44c | 283.59$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.59 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 64c | 245.55$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 243.8$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 21c | 232.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.63 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 12c | 232.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.78 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 222.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 80c | 213.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 61c | 184.05$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 179.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 59c | 169.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 22c | 149.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 46c | 148.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 58c | 146.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 41c | 143.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 45c | 139.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 18c | 139.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.87 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 14c | 138.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.49 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 134$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 15c | 133.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed No | 35c | 131.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 126$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 125.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 10c | 123.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 11c | 120.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 61c | 116.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11cb…4f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 112.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 53c | 105.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…22e4backed Yes | 18c | 103.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 28c | 102.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 34c | 99.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 96.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 92.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…3f4bbacked Yes | 77c | 90.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 17c | 89.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 88.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 16c | 88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 75c | 84.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 22c | 83.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 15c | 82.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 25c | 81.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed No | 34c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…fae1backed Yes | 55c | 54.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 56c | 53.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 52.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 36c | 50.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 44c | 48.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 38.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 36.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 35c | 33.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 29.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 46c | 29.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 62c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 49c | 28.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 72c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 70c | 27.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 48c | 27.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 80c | 26.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…1d95backed No | 74c | 25.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…9844backed Yes | 80c | 23.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed Yes | 62c | 23.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 22.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…3210backed Yes | 46c | 22.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 62c | 18.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.