Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacd0b40afa4e08872450904a477bb9f4108c59c8ebdeab1e9e447652981436ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,205$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 33c | 508.67$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.67 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 343.7$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 224.28$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 199.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 185.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 35c | 163$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 72c | 139.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 69c | 138.8$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 36c | 126.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 113.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 34c | 110.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 35c | 93.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 86.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 82.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 17c | 78.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 35c | 72.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 64.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e91…11d7backed Yes | 32c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 60.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 67c | 60.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 32c | 60.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 26c | 60.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 59.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 34c | 58.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 38c | 58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 56.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 69c | 55.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 51.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 48.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…3260backed No | 68c | 43.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 28c | 39.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 39.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 33.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 65c | 32.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 35c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 34c | 29.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 69c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 64c | 25.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 21.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…0000backed No | 69c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 65c | 21.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 20.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673f…727bbacked No | 73c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 71c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 73c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 64c | 16.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 71c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 75c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.