Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38f2c7db2a29e512236751cb7c40a8bddb1a64a432d0d98736f4adc8443f9050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f5b…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 659.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 12c | 551.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 293.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 16c | 236.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 71c | 232.87$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 204.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 34c | 162.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 149.66$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 24c | 141.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 117.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 26c | 103.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 99.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…7505backed Yes | 20c | 97.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed Yes | 12c | 96.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 23c | 92.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 90.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 86.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 77c | 83.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 23c | 77.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 19c | 77.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 76.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 19c | 66.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 22c | 65.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 26c | 65.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 22c | 61.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 22c | 57.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 72c | 50.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae6…d270backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 45.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 43.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 26c | 42.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed No | 79c | 37.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 75c | 33.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 78c | 29.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…82fabacked No | 71c | 22.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 78c | 21.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 71c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 74c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 80c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed No | 74c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.