Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a8227a799c5099dfb5f903ee6318255511ef036d38ed61dcc51e54cde1c412
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 220.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 35c | 199.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 121.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 38c | 117$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 18c | 114.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 33c | 110.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 103.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 69c | 99.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 93.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 21c | 70.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 52.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 34c | 44.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 27c | 42.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed No | 75c | 39.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8822…7adbbacked No | 78c | 39.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 38.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 35.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 74c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 78c | 23.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 66c | 22.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 68c | 22.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 72c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 16.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 71c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e47…bdd1backed No | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 69c | 15.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 75c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.