Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9f42b8930ef5d0df4d6084e4c1fc18de59a1f5c993cfe17c4c45b9f823e3b8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 5c | 6,086$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.31 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 5c | 5,249$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.21 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 4c | 915.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 526.25$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.87 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 419.21$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 5c | 277$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 271.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…0beabacked Yes | 10c | 257.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 215.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 212.73$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 211.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 31c | 176.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 170.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 58c | 170.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 32c | 161.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 32c | 156.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 145.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 126.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 121.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed No | 67c | 112.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 20c | 111.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 29c | 109.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 12c | 105.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 19c | 101.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 16c | 86.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 77.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 67.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 72c | 63.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 71c | 57.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 20c | 55.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 27c | 54.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 53.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 52.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 40c | 51.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 52c | 48.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 71c | 47.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 33c | 45.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 55c | 44.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 48c | 44.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 43.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 57c | 42.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 62c | 42.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 65c | 40.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 69c | 37.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a8…6da5backed Yes | 31c | 35.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 37c | 34.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…813bbacked Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 50c | 34.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 32.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 73c | 31.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 30.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 69c | 28.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 71c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed No | 71c | 26.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 71c | 26.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…25f9backed No | 71c | 26.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 71c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 61c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…7eb2backed No | 70c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…5b54backed No | 71c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 72c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 72c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 73c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61a…5e39backed No | 77c | 16.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 65c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.