Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e3ef763b119852735fce28382a5f7a724312beb188304b6cfe81a5636a6c5c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 9c | 773.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 547.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 2c | 516.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 25c | 477.54$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 61c | 475.55$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.28 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked No | 6c | 338.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 41c | 325.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.72 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 244.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 242.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 79c | 192.05$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 191.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 80c | 161$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 159.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 152.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Yes | 78c | 149.08$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 60c | 130.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 43c | 126.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…3761backed Yes | 80c | 125.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 69c | 124.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 124.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 72c | 118$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 45c | 116.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 112.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 100.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 42c | 97.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 89.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 89.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 88.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 88.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 77.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eae…bd51backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…0beabacked Yes | 34c | 73.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 35c | 72.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 57c | 69.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…8b20backed Yes | 67c | 60.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 71c | 59.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…3242backed No | 55c | 52.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 52.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 45c | 50.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 51c | 48.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 64c | 47.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…5607backed No | 55c | 46.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 32c | 44.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 44.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…a109backed No | 54c | 41.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 45c | 40.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eeb…5428backed Yes | 46c | 40.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 60c | 40.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 54c | 39.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 76c | 39.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 59c | 38.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 39c | 38.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 42c | 36.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 34.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fa…33f2backed Yes | 47c | 33.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 41c | 30.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 53c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 58c | 21.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 21.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 59c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 55c | 20.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 56c | 18.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…9349backed No | 56c | 17.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 64c | 17.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.